As the U.S. perceives China, not North Korea, as its primary threat, changes are expected in U.S.-South Korea military drills and the role of USFK.
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According to Dr. Cho Han-bum, the Trump administration faced isolation from the international community in its conflict with Iran. As the Iran issue became complicated, the U.S. urgently needed international cooperation but received no help from South Korea, Japan, or European countries. This put political pressure on President Trump ahead of the midterm elections.
Dr. Cho Han-bum stated that President Trump expressed disappointment with the South Korean government's uncooperative attitude on the Iran issue. Trump questioned why the U.S. should station 39,000 troops in South Korea and bear defense costs if the South Korean government would not help the U.S. in the Iran situation. This can be interpreted in the context of Trump's 'America First' foreign policy, which seeks to strengthen pressure on allies.
Dr. Cho Han-bum explained that the South Korean government's response to the announcement of the suspension of U.S.-South Korea joint exercises was unexpectedly calm. The South Korean government expressed respect for President Trump's decision and gratitude for his decision for peace on the Korean Peninsula. Then-Minister of National Defense, Rep. Ahn Gyu-baek, also showed a relaxed attitude, saying "it doesn't matter" as all important drills had already been completed and the remaining ones could be conducted by the South Korean military independently. This reaction was seen as unusual, far from the common concerns about a security vacuum.
Dr. Lee Chun-keun argued that the U.S.'s real principal enemy is no longer North Korea but China. He believed that the Ulchi Freedom Shield exercise, a defensive drill against a presumed North Korean attack, had become distant from the U.S.'s main interests. He emphasized that the relocation of USFK to Pyeongtaek was a strategic move to check China, and thus, the perception of USFK's functions and role needs to change.
Dr. Lee Chun-keun revealed that the U.S. Department of Defense is reviewing a new nuclear strategy to expand the role of tactical nuclear weapons in preparation for possible attacks on allies by China and Russia. Korean scholars have repeatedly proposed redeploying tactical nuclear weapons to the Korean Peninsula, and the U.S. has also indicated it might consider this. This move is evaluated as greatly contributing to enhancing deterrence. He added that tactical and strategic nuclear weapons differ in operational purpose and method, and realistic discussions on nuclear weapons deployment on the Korean Peninsula are necessary.
The U.S.-South Korea combined exercise, Ulchi Freedom Shield, is a large-scale military exercise typically planned a year in advance. It is pointed out that a sudden suspension on the day of the exercise, with troops and supplies already deployed, is militarily incomprehensible. Dr. Cho Han-bum emphasized, "From a military common sense perspective, it's an absurd situation."
Professor Kim Jong-dae explained that while training is a soldier's destiny, for a ruler, everything, including war, is one of the means of governance. That is, military exercises can be suspended based on a ruler's political judgment, separate from military considerations. Just as decisions on truces or retreats during war are made by rulers, not military experts, it was believed that the exercise could have been suspended based on President Trump's political judgment.
Professor Kim Jong-dae pointed out that the distinction between peacetime and wartime operational control (OPCON) is an artificial classification, and explained that there are three major conditions for the transfer of wartime OPCON. These conditions include the ROK military's leading defense capabilities and the maintenance of a combined defense system. The suspension of these U.S.-South Korea joint exercises raises concerns that it could hinder the verification of these OPCON transfer conditions. If exercises are not properly conducted, it may be difficult for the ROK military to demonstrate the necessary capabilities for OPCON transfer.
Professor Kim Jong-dae pointed out that despite the U.S. unilaterally notifying the suspension of U.S.-South Korea joint exercises, the South Korean government's reaction was unusual. The South Korean government at the time announced its stance of "expressing respect" and "gratitude for President Trump's decision for peace on the Korean Peninsula." Even the Minister of National Defense showed an attitude of "it doesn't matter" regarding the exercise suspension. Professor Kim Jong-dae suggested that such a reaction from the South Korean government might have even caused additional dissatisfaction from President Trump.
Professor Kim Jong-dae emphasized that the U.S.'s threat priority has shifted from North Korea to China. In other words, North Korea is no longer the principal enemy of the U.S., and the main concern of the U.S. is checking China. This shift suggests that the importance of U.S.-South Korea joint exercises might have decreased from the U.S. perspective. The U.S. appears to be focusing more resources and efforts on responding to China's rise rather than North Korea's military threat, which could bring fundamental changes to the role of USFK and the security strategy on the Korean Peninsula. The nature of the U.S.-South Korea alliance also needs to expand from its existing focus on defense against North Korea to a focus on checking China.
Answers come from the transcript, with the exact spot cited.
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