Presidential Approval Rating Drops to 30s: Analysis of Causes and Background

The unprecedented situation of the Bank of Korea raising its key interest rate for two consecutive months has occurred. This is the first time in the Bank of Korea's history that interest rates have been raised for two consecutive months after the start of a rate hike cycle, reflecting the severity of the economic situation. In July, consumer prices recorded 2.8% and core inflation 2.6%, and while this year's growth forecast has been revised upwards from 2.6% to 3.3%, unstable economic indicators such as household credit surpassing 2,000 trillion won for the first time are appearing simultaneously.

While Representative Jung Cheong-rae's remarks after the party convention were cited as a reason for the president's approval rating decline, counterarguments based on public opinion poll analysis suggest otherwise. Journalist Park Dae-yong emphasized that "regardless of Jung Cheong-rae, the president's approval rating was already undergoing a period of adjustment," and that it should be viewed as a trend rather than specific remarks. The analysis suggests that the approval rating was already in an adjustment phase before then, and it is difficult to see Representative Jung Cheong-rae's remarks as the direct cause of the decline.

Public opinion poll results for presidential approval ratings vary significantly by institution, adding to the confusion in interpretation. Despite being conducted during similar periods, approval ratings showed a large discrepancy of approximately 9 percentage points, ranging from 36% to 45%. As a result, judgments regarding the decline or rebound of approval ratings inevitably differ depending on which survey results are encountered.

There was also a significant difference in approval ratings depending on the polling method. In surveys conducted by Kkots of Public Opinion during the same period, the automated response system (ARS) method showed an approval rating of 42%, while the phone interview method, where people directly called and asked questions, yielded a whopping 51% approval rating. This is a large difference of 9 percentage points, and it is analyzed that the phone interview method is likely to show more accurate results due to its higher response rate.

Even when survey timing and questions were similar, there was a significant difference in approval ratings depending on the polling institution. An ARS poll conducted by Cho Won CNI on August 26 showed an approval rating of 39%, while a phone interview poll conducted by NBS from August 24 to 26 showed 50%. This is a difference of a whopping 11 percentage points, and it appears that the difference in response rates, with Cho Won CNI at 4% and NBS at 15%, may have influenced the results.

Regarding the analysis that the president's core supporters have left, it was suggested that 'cooled off' is a more appropriate expression than 'left'. While it is true that the enthusiasm of supporters has decreased since the local elections and party convention, labeling this as 'left' could induce fear of losing power. The current situation is interpreted as a 'yellow light' state, meaning that the enthusiasm of the supporters is not what it once was.

An analysis of the intensity of positive evaluations for the president revealed a sharp decline in the proportion of respondents who answered 'doing very well'. While overall positive evaluations decreased by 20 percentage points, highly positive evaluations of 'doing very well' plummeted by a staggering 32 percentage points. According to Kkots of Public Opinion, the percentage of Democratic Party supporters who said the president was 'doing very well' dropped from 87% on May 22 to 55% last week, indicating that the intensity is decreasing at a much faster rate than the overall positive rating.

While some have hypothesized that the decline in presidential approval ratings is due to the departure of weak supporters, data analysis did not support this. If the hypothesis were true, the approval rating for the president among remaining supporters should have increased as weak links dropped off. However, actual public opinion poll results from all four institutions showed a simultaneous decline in both the size of the support base and the approval rating for the president, leading to the conclusion that the 'weak link departure' theory alone cannot explain the current situation.

The discourse on the president's 'core supporters' began in earnest on June 23 when Kim Eo-jun stated on Kim Eo-jun's News Factory that "core supporters have crossed their arms." Subsequently, key figures like Yoo Si-min also made related remarks, leading the media to start paying attention to the trends of core supporters.

The decline in presidential approval ratings has been confirmed to have started immediately after the local elections in June. In surveys conducted on June 5 and 6, the approval rating recorded 59%, falling below 60% for the first time. Despite the Democratic Party's victory in the local elections on June 3, approval ratings began to decline from this point. It is notable that approval ratings, which had maintained 64-68% before the local elections, shifted to a downward trend regardless of the election results.

The reality of the decline in presidential approval ratings lay in the departure of those who responded 'doing very well' in their positive evaluations. Analysis showed that a total 5 percentage point drop in approval ratings occurred solely among those who answered 'doing very well'. The segment that responded 'doing fairly well' saw almost no change in approval ratings, and the 'doing very well' segment that departed shifted to the 'doing very poorly' negative evaluation segment. This suggests that the cause is not a simple drop in approval ratings, but rather a change in the intensity of core supporters' evaluations.

The decline in presidential approval ratings was most pronounced among swing voters. President's positive evaluations among respondents who identified as swing voters dropped from 70% to 59%, an 11 percentage point decrease. In contrast, among progressive voters, it dropped from 92% to 84%, an 8 percentage point decrease, and conservative voters showed almost no movement. While both swing voters and progressive voters showed departures, differences in scale and manner suggest that the departure of swing voters significantly influenced the overall decline in approval ratings.

Verification of the correlation between Representative Jung Cheong-rae's approval rating and the decline in the president's approval rating concluded that there is no direct causal link. While it is true that a high proportion of negative evaluations of the president exist within Representative Jung Cheong-rae's support base, analysis suggests this does not directly lead to the departure of core supporters' approval of the president. The phenomenon of candidate ranking reversals depending on the poll target was also observed, indicating that support for a specific candidate within the party is not a decisive cause for the departure of presidential approval ratings.