As caution intensifies in the stock market ahead of macro data announcements, bank stocks are expected to be influenced by lending regulations and diversification of non-banking sector profits.
West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil prices maintained around $96 per barrel, perpetuating concerns about oil-induced inflation. This trend also influenced the rise in government bond yields.
However, some demand expansion was observed, particularly in semiconductor materials, components, and equipment related stocks, indicating continued interest in specific sectors.
SK Hynix's ETF inclusion ratio of 36.7% was approximately 16 percentage points higher than Samsung Electronics' 22.8%, leading to an anticipated sell-off of approximately KRW 1.2 trillion in the late afternoon. This is a substantial amount compared to Samsung Electronics' rebalancing volume of about KRW 200 billion. However, SK Hynix is in the process of a share buyback program totaling approximately KRW 1.1 trillion, which could largely offset the supply burden from such a large-scale sell-off.
A share buyback of this magnitude can alleviate temporary demand deterioration due to rebalancing and act as a factor limiting downward pressure on stock prices. The mixed demand for the two companies shows that outcomes can differ not only due to differences in rebalancing volumes but also according to each company's self-rescue measures.
Samsung Electronics offers special dividends of approximately KRW 4,500 and regular dividends of KRW 370 to shareholders who hold shares until September 28, creating high expectations for dividends. In addition, expectations for an additional shareholder return announcement in October remain valid.
These factors increase the possibility of institutional investors switching to buy positions after rebalancing, leading to buying inflows centered on Samsung Electronics. Therefore, despite short-term rebalancing sales, a positive demand trend for Samsung Electronics is expected in the mid to long term.
Interest rate hikes can lead to expectations of improved interest income for bank and insurance stocks, which is a positive factor for stock prices. The current rise in government bond yields is due to a combination of factors including Iran risks and high oil prices. However, real estate regulations and loan ceiling regulations are likely to burden bank stock profit indicators.
Although net profit indicators showed an upward trend in the first half of this year despite lending regulations, it is uncertain whether this profit growth will continue into the second half. Consequently, bank stocks face a dual situation: expectations of interest income from rate hikes and pressure on loan ceilings due to lending regulations.
KB Financial Group and Shinhan Financial Group, among others, demonstrated the potential for profit diversification by confirming improved profits in the non-banking sector in their second-quarter results. This suggests that rather than solely relying on interest income from rate hikes, it is crucial to assess how effectively the non-banking sector can offset the overall profit indicator decline due to loan ceiling regulations and expand profitability.
Therefore, instead of blindly assuming all bank stocks will benefit from interest rate hikes, investors should meticulously examine each bank's non-banking sector profit expansion strategy and profit defense capabilities. Securing growth momentum in the non-banking sector will be an important criterion for future bank stock investments. This ability to diversify profits is a key factor enabling stable growth for banks amid unpredictable macroeconomic changes.
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