Additional 30,000 North Korean Troops Imminent for Ukraine; Russia's Manpower Shortage Acute

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, President Zelensky has repeatedly mentioned North Korea's troop deployment and its provision of missiles and artillery shells. Initially this was dismissed as bluffing, but since the intelligence from Ukraine's special operations forces, which directly confront Russia, is considered the most accurate, Zelensky's remarks are gaining credibility.

The additional North Korean deployment is expected to have a major impact on bolstering Russia's forces.

Russia, by contrast, faces a severe depletion of young manpower. Its large-scale conscription for this spring's offensive filled only one-third of the number conscripted last spring, and with Ukrainian counterattacks threatening even Moscow, Putin is in a very desperate situation.

In the early stages of the war, about 1 million young Russians fled abroad to avoid conscription, and about 1 million more became casualties, greatly depleting its youth manpower. Young men are now hard to find in Moscow's nightlife districts, and on the Ukrainian and Russian fronts, many combatants are middle-aged men in their 40s and 50s. This is an indicator of how severe Russia's manpower shortage has become.

In particular, its young troops in their late teens and early twenties are indoctrinated with the ideology of 'fighting for the Leader,' which could become a variable that changes the course of the war.

Kim Jong Un likely realized the weakness of Pyongyang's air defenses from the Ukraine war as well as from past cases such as the capture of Venezuela's Maduro and the decapitation of Iran's Ali Khamenei. Accordingly, Kim is analyzed as linking his acquisition of advanced radar capable of protecting Pyongyang, rather than the aging Soviet-era S-300 air defense radar, to his support strategy for Russia. This shows Kim's strong determination to strengthen North Korea's security.

Experts had predicted that North Korean young men, drawn to the outside world and influenced by the Korean Wave, would choose defection to South Korea over war and surrender en masse. However, of the North Korean combat troops deployed to the Kursk front in Russia in October 2024, only two were captured alive. This suggests that North Korean troops are far more strongly indoctrinated ideologically than expected, despite large numbers of casualties on the fierce battlefield.

At the meeting between President Zelensky and President Lee Jae-myung in Turkey, they agreed on humanitarian principles, and the two will be returned according to their own wishes. Kim Jong Un likely made various efforts through Russia to retrieve them, but these are expected to fail due to South Korea's $100 million support to Russia and Zelensky's decision. This could be a serious blow to North Korea's system.

Russia's conscription system is based on one year of service, and conscripts are legally prohibited from being deployed overseas. The authority to deploy troops abroad lies with the parliament, not with Putin. Deploying young conscripts overseas would intensify domestic backlash, and resistance is expected from groups such as the 'Committee of Soldiers' Mothers,' which has exerted strong influence since the Afghan War. These legal and institutional limits are a major obstacle to Russia's mobilization of troops.

If ground forces cannot advance, the war tends to fall into a stalemate. Some claim that tanks and armored vehicles have become useless due to drone attacks, but this only reflects an emphasis on the successful drone strikes. Anti-drone defenses, such as covering tanks with wire mesh, can block drone attacks, and as Israel's Merkava tanks have shown in fighting against Hamas, large-scale forces and armored power remain essential for breaking through the front lines.

On the wall of the 'Overseas Military Operations Battle Memorial' that North Korea built is inscribed a list of 2,300 war dead. About 11,000 North Korean troops were deployed to the Kursk battle over five months from December 2024 to April 2025, and the death of 2,300 during this period means about 20% of the force was killed. Considering the wounded, it can be said they suffered devastating losses. Kim Jong Un awarded the hero title to more than 100 people, all of whom were killed, which starkly shows how many North Korean soldiers were sacrificed on the battlefield, compared with the fewer than 700 People's Army hero titles awarded during the three years of the Korean War.

Since April this year, Ukraine has recovered about 40 square kilometers, and now about 700 square kilometers, an area equivalent to Seoul, reversing the course of the war. Using long-range strike capabilities and its own drones, Ukraine is retaking more land than it lost, leaving Putin in a desperate situation. Zelensky predicted that after the additional 30,000 North Korean troops, Russia would issue a further mobilization order for 300,000 to 500,000 people in October, after the September Russian parliamentary elections. Such mobilization could provoke strong domestic backlash, but it may be carried out as a gamble to reverse the war's momentum and prevent a fall in Putin's political standing.

Since the North Korean People's Army first took part in winter combat in late November 2024, the strategy appears to be Putin's last gamble this winter: issuing a large-scale mobilization order in October after the September election and receiving additional North Korean troops.

The fact that these two were captured after failing in an attempted suicide itself clearly shows the strength of North Korean ideological indoctrination. It suggests that ideological commitment, such as 'defending the Leader to the death,' operates far more strongly than any longing for the outside world or personal survival instinct. This is also why North Korean troops cannot be viewed simply as mercenaries.

When North Korean soldiers first heard about the overseas deployment, they reportedly welcomed it, having spent ten years in monotonous military service with poor food, and they took the words 'overseas live training' at face value. They thought they were not going to die, seeing new uniforms, body armor, and abundant food. However, after they were deployed to actual combat and large numbers died, and the news spread, perceptions of deployment have likely worsened considerably. The soldiers' reaction to the additional 30,000 deployment is expected to be quite different from that to the first deployment.

Among North Korea's roughly 1 million troops, many perform rear-support roles such as farming, and those with real combat capability are limited. The forces initially deployed were the top elite units, including the 11th Corps Storm Corps and units under the Reconnaissance General Bureau. Even with an additional 30,000 troops, elite soldiers will likely have to be sent, which could cause considerable losses to North Korea's overall forces. For Kim Jong Un, the additional deployment will be more than simple support and will be an adventurous decision.

Despite continuing the war, Russia's finances appear relatively stable. This is because Russia has the self-sufficiency to procure its own food and energy. Unlike China, which cannot be self-sufficient due to its difficulty producing oil, Russia maintains external stability in international politics on the strength of this advantage. This economic self-reliance is one of the main drivers enabling Russia to sustain a long war.

Russia's shortage of personnel to deploy in combat is intensifying as the war drags on. Alongside the human losses from the prolonged war, this is also affecting Russia's chronic gender imbalance. The shortage of men is emerging as a serious population policy issue not only for the military but across society. This manpower shortage is one of the core reasons for Russia's request for North Korean troop deployments.

Russia currently has an absolute shortage of spare troops to rotate with those fighting on the front lines. This is the core reason Russia has requested North Korean troop deployments. As the war dragged on, the pool of combat-capable soldiers shrank, and Russia ran into Western sanctions and the limits of domestic conscription, leaving it in a position where it struggles to hold the front without North Korean support. Ultimately, North Korean troops have become an indispensable resource for Russia.

The reason North Korea continues to fire missiles is that it aims to accumulate test data and ultimately develop an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) carrying a nuclear warhead to target the United States. This goal is regarded as the top priority for regime survival, separate from the economic hardship or the hunger of its people. In other words, North Korea will not stop its nuclear development under any circumstances and will try to strengthen its position in the international community through it. This shows the absolute importance nuclear weapons hold in North Korea's military strategy.