U.S. Shifts Policy on Strait of Hormuz

The United States has indicated a policy change, no longer unilaterally defending the Strait of Hormuz. This is because the strategic importance of the Strait of Hormuz has decreased compared to the past due to increased U.S. oil exports. Before shale gas production, 10% of the oil used by the U.S. passed through the Strait of Hormuz.

The U.S. now wants its allies to participate in protecting the strait under the noble cause of maintaining international order. While it also meant the U.S. opening oil transport routes for other countries, the situation for the U.S. has changed following the shale revolution.

If the oil transport route, which accounts for 70% of imports, is blocked, the South Korean economy would suffer immense damage overnight.

Japan also shows a high dependence on the Strait of Hormuz at 70%, and China's dependence is also high at 47%. Dr. Lee Chun-geun emphasized that defending the Strait of Hormuz is an essential security factor for protecting the South Korean economy.

Although Iran has threatened retaliation against South Korea's troop dispatch, its leverage is considered low.

Dr. Lee Chun-geun stated that South Korea does not currently import much oil from Iran, and even if Iran refuses to sell oil to South Korea, the U.S. can always resolve oil supply issues.

Approximately 20% of global maritime trade is related to South Korea. In the past, defending the Demilitarized Zone was the entirety of security, but now, strengthening naval power to protect sea lanes has become an essential factor.

Dr. Lee Chun-geun emphasized that South Korea must move away from its past reliance on the U.S. Navy, strengthen cooperation with allies, and develop its own maritime defense capabilities. This is a prerequisite for South Korea to maintain continuous growth as a trading nation.

Recently, the Iranian President and Speaker of Parliament reportedly directly mentioned economic hardship and food shortages, even saying, “We are too hungry.” Public dissatisfaction in Iranian society has reached its peak.

Dr. Lee Chun-geun assessed that Iran will eventually have no choice but to yield. He believed that even if the current fanatical Islamic regime collapses and the military takes power, they would adopt a more realistic approach than the current regime, and this would be the ultimate outcome of the conflict.