Kissinger's China Choice: A Misjudgment?

The host initiated the discussion by asking what advice former U.S. President Henry Kissinger and Ronald Reagan would offer on current international affairs and to President Trump if they were alive today. This aims to re-examine Kissinger's realist diplomacy and Reagan's value-centric diplomacy, deriving guidance for Trump-era North Korea and global policies through their leadership. The core objective is to explore what solutions these great past leaders might offer for today's complex international problems.

Jang Sung-ho pointed out that the history of the United States goes beyond mere warfare and conquest, having ousted global dictators through the value of democracy. He emphasized that the U.S. has served as a global police force, upholding liberty, democracy, and the capitalist market order. This section explains America's identity in protecting global freedom values by checking countries that maintain human rights abuses and controlled economic systems.

Jang Sung-ho explained that the founding spirit of the United States is rooted in the ideals of freedom and equality established through the Mayflower Compact. This reflects the determination to build a new nation where no individual is controlled and no absolute power holds office for an extended period. The founding ideal of creating a nation that ultimately pursues a free capitalist market order, individual liberty, and economic prosperity played a crucial role in shaping America's identity.

Jang Sung-ho described Henry Kissinger as a diplomatic genius, explaining that his realist diplomacy sought a 'Balance of Power' in international affairs. Kissinger believed that if the U.S. unilaterally led the international order, it could become a dictatorship, hence emphasizing the importance of seeking a balance of power through mutual dialogue, compromise, and cooperation. This demonstrates his belief that international order could be maintained stably for a long time through a balance of power among major nations, based on a cold assessment of national interests.

Jang Sung-ho assessed Kissinger's diplomatic strategy toward China as ingenious and correct at the time. It was part of the Nixon Doctrine and the détente trend, aiming to utilize China as a strategic tool to check the Soviet Union. However, Jang Sung-ho pointed out that this policy ultimately led to China's growth. He suggested that while the U.S.'s diplomatic judgment at the time succeeded in achieving short-term goals, it produced unexpected long-term side effects.

Jang Sung-ho explained President Ronald Reagan's 'lion-like leadership,' contrasting it with Henry Kissinger's 'fox-like leadership.' Reagan, relying on strong power, perceived communism not merely as a competitor but as a systemic threat to freedom and responded decisively. He labeled the Soviet Union an 'evil empire' and did not shy away from a direct confrontation with the communist system, which is credited with being a decisive catalyst for the fall of the Berlin Wall. Reagan's value-oriented diplomacy was based on an unwavering conviction to uphold liberal democracy.

Jang Sung-ho evaluated Kissinger's leadership, noting that the assessment of a hero can change with the times. He believed that Kissinger's fox-like and applause-seeking leadership was effective during the U.S.-Soviet confrontation. However, he emphasized that 'Power' is fundamentally important in international relations, and ultimately, power is the basic means to sustain any community or group. He revealed a realist perspective that in competitive structures, whether in the animal kingdom or human society, power dictates everything.

Jang Sung-ho emphasized that consensus among major powers is crucial to overcome the reality of division. Reminding that Korea's division itself was orchestrated by major powers, he argued that the current strategy toward North Korea must also be approached realistically. He mentioned that President Park Chung-hee attempted nuclear development but abandoned it due to the ROK-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty, nuclear tripwires, and NPT accession, suggesting that both dialogue and the accumulation of power are essential.

Jang Sung-ho argued that dialogue with North Korea currently holds little meaning, predicting that North Korea would constantly demand money through talks. He pointed out that North Korea began developing nuclear weapons with Soviet technical assistance in the 1970s, and that current North Korea faces an impossible survival situation if it withdraws from the NPT (Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty), leading to international isolation. Therefore, he emphasized the need to pursue North Korea's nuclear reduction based on strong power anchored by the ROK-U.S. alliance. This underscores the necessity of a realistic and firm approach to resolve the North Korean nuclear issue.

Jang Sung-ho clarified that Henry Kissinger was a realist international political scientist, not a pro-China figure. He explained that Kissinger mistakenly believed that if China developed economically and integrated into the capitalist market economic order, it would transition to a capitalist system. This was a strategy to use China as a means to check the Soviet Union, but instead, China, with U.S. assistance, developed its unique socialist model and pragmatic economic policies, growing in an unexpected direction. Consequently, it is difficult to avoid criticism that Kissinger's strategy contributed to China's rise.

Jang Sung-ho highlighted that Kissinger's strategy, which was correct 20 years ago, is now being evaluated as wrong, emphasizing that future leading nations must formulate strategies looking 20 years ahead. U.S. economic aid, he noted, ironically led to China's rise, making China a virtual adversary to the U.S. in economic, military, and technological fields. He stressed that in the era of Artificial Intelligence (AI), securing future growth engines and leading the world order requires a long-term perspective and strategic calculation looking 20 years into the future.

Jang Sung-ho assessed Ronald Reagan's 'diplomacy of strength' as playing a decisive role in the collapse of the Soviet Union. Reagan significantly boosted defense capabilities, applying military and economic pressure on the Soviet Union, which, according to analysis, accelerated the shift of power from a bipolar to a multipolar, and eventually unipolar, system during the Cold War. He emphasized that Reagan's strategy, which understood the nature of power, was ultimately effective diplomacy that led to the dissolution of the Soviet Union.

Jang Sung-ho asserted that Ronald Reagan's 'diplomacy of strength' acted as a decisive catalyst in the collapse of the Soviet Union. He argued that Reagan's emphasis on military buildup and the defense of liberal values exacerbated the internal contradictions within the Soviet Union and intensified external pressure. He explained that dictatorships do not collapse on their own, requiring a combination of internal factors and external pressure to disintegrate.

Jang Sung-ho emphasized that, historically, authoritarian regimes have never collapsed on their own, but rather through a complex interplay of internal contradictions and external pressure. Internally, economic inefficiencies, systemic rigidity, and ethnic issues play a role, while externally, strong pressure and internal anti-regime movements simultaneously accelerate the collapse of dictatorial systems. This provides crucial insight into the vulnerabilities and mechanisms of authoritarian regime collapse.

Jang Sung-ho diagnosed that South Korea currently stands at a critical crossroads: maintaining the ROK-U.S. alliance or opting for a pro-North Korea/pro-China stance. He expressed concern that, especially after the rise to power of Chairman Lee Jae-myung, this has transformed from mere policy adjustments into a fundamental choice of national alignment—whether to stand with the U.S. or align with China and North Korea. This emphasizes that it is a grave matter that will determine the nation's security and future, beyond simple diplomatic choices.

Jang Sung-ho emphasized that the Korean Peninsula issue originated from its division, referencing the history where the U.S. and the Soviet Union conveniently divided the peninsula at the 38th parallel for trusteeship during the liberation period. He explained that the presence of Soviet troops in North Korea and U.S. forces in South Korea supported the establishment of different governmental systems, transforming the Korean Peninsula into a confrontation zone. He analyzed that this history of division is the fundamental root of the current geopolitical crisis on the Korean Peninsula.

Jang Sung-ho stressed that with North Korea already possessing nuclear weapons, South Korea's top priority is to protect its liberal democratic system. He argued that if the U.S. withdraws, South Korea would be directly exposed to North Korea's nuclear threat, and thus, a strong blood alliance through the ROK-U.S. Mutual Defense Treaty must be solidified. He asserted that while pragmatic economic diplomacy is necessary to some extent, security must be fundamentally ensured through strong power and the ROK-U.S. alliance. This presents strengthening the ROK-U.S. alliance as South Korea's survival strategy amidst the North Korean nuclear crisis.

Jang Sung-ho quoted the proverb, 'If you want peace, prepare for war,' emphasizing a realistic security posture. However, he pointed out that even more crucial is overcoming internal division. He argued that no matter how strong a nation is externally, it cannot truly rise if it is internally divided. He criticized forces that deny market economy and aim for controlled economic methods, stressing the need to clearly recognize the values of liberal democracy and capitalist order, and to learn from past mistakes. This emphasizes that internal unity and the preservation of values are essential for a nation's continuous development and stability.