US Stock Market Shaken by AI

This rise in oil prices could act as a factor pressuring the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to raise interest rates.

Short-term oil price instability expands market volatility, and attention should be paid to the volatility of the energy sector, such as oil tanker stocks.

The market is watching for the possibility of voluntary investment adjustments by companies.

The presenter interpreted this as a short-term issue, believing that AI investment will continue.

This aims to relieve pressure on memory and data center costs and secure profitability.

However, given the technological hegemony competition between the US and China, AI investment appears to be an unstoppable trend. The current AI-related issues are expected to cause short-term downward pressure for about 2-3 weeks.

Funds that currently have nowhere to go are moving to Bitcoin. The market predicts about a 27% chance of the Clarity Act passing.

However, the presenter expressed skepticism about the bill's passage, suggesting a widespread perception in the market that it is unlikely to pass.

Investment in the AI industry is expected to be difficult to stop, and concerns about China's AI pursuit are minimal.

The current situation is assessed as a short-term issue lasting 2-3 weeks.

This suggests that the market has crossed a critical threshold.

A forecast emerged that today's market is unlikely to close in positive territory, suggesting that expectations for long-position profits may be blocked.

If the market were to close positive, he announced he would go all-in on short positions, showing strong conviction in a market decline.

It is assessed that Trump's remarks alone will not significantly change the market's outlook on AI.

When bond yields rise, the value of the dollar also increases. This enhances the attractiveness of interest-bearing assets like bonds.

Conversely, interest-free assets such as gold and Bitcoin are structured to decline in price due to the adverse effects of rising bond yields.

This chart analysis is merely a general tendency and cannot be definitively guaranteed.

Tesla is not merely a company that pre-reflects future dreams, but one that has already realized many technologies. While autonomous driving technology development is delayed, steady progress can be observed.

Although some unrealistic goals, such as colonizing Mars, exist, the overall technological prowess must be acknowledged.

This stems from concerns that human intuition and mathematical romance may disappear.

While there is an expectation that AI might one day solve physics conundrums, there is significant discomfort with such methods in the field of mathematics.

This suggests that bond yields near 5% could act as a strong support level.

If the probability of going down is 40% and up is 60%, it is not the right time to use leverage, he believes.

A very cautious approach is required, considering the maximum drawdown (MDD).

The attack on the Saudi oil pipeline has significantly increased the likelihood of disruptions to a major route through which up to 7 million barrels of crude oil pass. If this pipeline closes, the potential for further oil price increases will expand.

Officials at the US Federal Reserve (FOMC) meeting are aware of these geopolitical oil price issues and are expected to consider them as an inflationary pressure factor.

The possibility of an interest rate hike has been adjusted to roughly 6 to 4.

In particular, the possibility of Trump controlling the House was analyzed as virtually zero.

This pledge is interpreted as part of a political strategy for winning the Senate.

If interest rates are frozen, the market is likely to surge in the short term.

With a 40% probability of interest rates being frozen, the possibility of a rate hike also coexists. The market is reviewing various strategies to stabilize the 30-year yield.

This appears to be a consensus alignment phenomenon due to market data updates.