U.S. Stocks Rise Despite Headwinds... Moderna Rallies 129%, Bitcoin Surges 22% in 3 Years

On Friday, August 22, 2026, the U.S. stock market showed an unusual trend with all three major indices rising without significant positive news. In fact, despite numerous negative factors such as Treasury yields climbing to 4.74%, the dollar index falling 0.07 points, and WTI crude oil surpassing $87, the stock market remained strong. Moon Ji-woong, Maeil Business Newspaper's New York correspondent, explained the paradoxical market movement, stating, "Today, the U.S. market didn't have any particular good news, but all three major indices rose. In fact, one could say there were more negative factors."

Moderna's stock price showed a strong recovery, driven by the news of successful Phase 3 clinical trials for skin cancer. Moderna, which surged 177% the day before yesterday, saw a slight adjustment yesterday before rising more than 8% again today. Correspondent Moon Ji-woong reported, "Moderna rose 177% the day before yesterday after succeeding in Phase 3 clinical trials for skin cancer, then saw a slight adjustment yesterday. And today, it rose more than 8% again," stating that it recorded a total gain of 129% this week alone.

Looking at the sector-specific gains today, the materials industrial sector recorded the highest increase, up 2.14%. This was followed by the discretionary consumer sector, which rose 1.15%, indicating a generally strong performance across various sectors. Correspondent Moon Ji-woong emphasized, "The materials industrial sector rose 2.14%, making it the highest gainer."

In the recent semiconductor market, memory semiconductors are showing relative strength compared to non-memory semiconductors. While U.S.-listed semiconductor stocks generally fell by 0.44%, SK Hynix ADR rose by 0.2%, and the Korea-Japan-U.S. Memory Semiconductor ETF increased by 0.17%. Correspondent Moon Ji-woong explained the preference for memory semiconductors, stating, "Recently, the trend is that memory, rather than system memory, system non-memory, or fabless, is definitely performing better."

Tesla's stock price rose, driven by Elon Musk's explosive revenue forecasts and anticipation for robotaxis. John Eryman expected Tesla's revenue to grow 119% over five years, but Elon Musk stated that actual revenue would be much higher, raising expectations. Correspondent Moon Ji-woong reported, "This might sound a bit crazy, but Space X and Tesla will go up much, much more than this," adding that the Cybertruck launch event scheduled for August 23 is particularly drawing investor attention.

If 1 million Tesla 'Cybertaxis' are operational, they are estimated to generate annual profits of $40 billion. The cost per Cybertaxi is $30,000, and considering depreciation and annual operating costs, the cost per unit is $20,000. However, the annual revenue per unit is expected to be $60,000, promising high profitability. Correspondent Moon Ji-woong explained, "In the case of Cybertaxi, it's about $30,000. This is a very representative image, the Cybertaxi's cost per unit is $30,000, and if you include depreciation and annual operating costs, it's $20,000," emphasizing the potential of the robotaxi business.

Hedge fund Citadel secured approximately $4 billion in profit by liquidating 80% of the semiconductor positions it acquired due to an SA Fund margin call on July 30. Citadel had taken over these positions at a 10% discount at the time of acquisition. Correspondent Moon Ji-woong reported, "Recently, I saw yesterday that Ken Griffin of Citadel sent a note to shareholders today stating that they had liquidated 80% of the positions they acquired from SA Fund."

Bloomberg reported that smart money is exiting the memory market, but a counterargument emerged that this is merely temporary profit-taking and fundamentals remain solid. Analysis indicates that memory semiconductor companies like Micron (6.5x) and SanDisk (7.8x) have very low price-to-earnings ratios (PER), suggesting ample room for further growth. Correspondent Moon Ji-woong commented, "In the case of Micron, the PER is 6.5 times, and SanDisk is 7.8 times, which is very low. So, there is plenty of room to go up," emphasizing a positive long-term outlook for the memory market.

JPMorgan published a report refuting the peak theory for the memory industry, forecasting continuous growth in the memory market until 2028. The overall memory market size forecast was raised from the previous $1.691 trillion to $1.826 trillion. This report predicts continued growth in the DRAM and NAND markets until 2028. Correspondent Moon Ji-woong reported, "Today, JPMorgan issued a report denying the memory peak-out, the memory industry peak theory," emphasizing that the analysis dispels market concerns.

According to Meritz Securities' data, the continuous increase in export unit prices for DRAM and NAND, when translated into South Korean semiconductor export performance, indicates that the memory industry is in a structural uptrend. This indicator is interpreted as alleviating concerns about the peak of the industry. Correspondent Moon Ji-woong stated, "The structural uptrend is still continuing, so there's no need to worry. No need for peak fear," presenting a positive outlook for the memory semiconductor market.

The U.S. Treasury's expanded buybacks of long-term bonds led to the dollar's value falling to its lowest in three months. This is linked to the degradation of fiscal credibility as U.S. national debt surpassed $40 trillion. Treasury buybacks act as a factor weakening the dollar's value by supplying dollar liquidity to the market. Correspondent Moon Ji-woong commented, "With the expansion of buybacks, the dollar has actually fallen to its lowest level in three months," explaining a key reason for the dollar's depreciation.

The decline in dollar value shows a clear inverse correlation, leading to rising Bitcoin and gold prices. This week alone, Bitcoin surged 22%, marking its largest increase since March 2023. This is confirmed by chart analysis that clearly shows the price movements of the dollar and Bitcoin are completely in opposite directions. Correspondent Moon Ji-woong explained, "The dollar and Bitcoin are completely inversely related. The red line is the dollar. When the dollar's value goes down like this, Bitcoin's value goes up like this, showing a complete inverse, inverse direction."

The increase in U.S. national debt results in a significant portion of the federal budget being spent on interest payments on Treasury bonds. Out of a federal budget totaling approximately $7.5 trillion, $1.2 trillion alone is used for Treasury interest. Correspondent Moon Ji-woong pointed out, "The federal budget is roughly $7.5 trillion, let's say $7 trillion, and Treasury interest alone is $1.2 trillion. $1.2 trillion is just flying out as interest expenses," analyzing that this reduces the government's capacity for spending, consumption, and investment, thereby hindering economic growth.

A surge in Treasury issuance leads to a 'Crowding-out Effect,' causing a contraction in private investment. Increased preference for safe-haven government bonds reduces demand for corporate bonds and high-yield bonds, which in turn raises funding costs for private companies. Consequently, private sector investment shrinks, negatively impacting economic growth. Correspondent Moon Ji-woong explained, "When a lot of government bonds are issued, a crowding-out effect occurs. This increases the burden on private companies. That then leads to a contraction in investment, which in turn negatively affects growth."

Analyzing the $40 trillion U.S. debt, approximately $9.4 trillion is U.S. Treasury bonds, with a substantial portion held by foreign governments. Japan, in particular, held $1.1 trillion in U.S. Treasury bonds as of the end of June, but its position has recently been decreasing. The largest holder is the U.S. private sector, holding approximately $16 trillion, while the Federal Reserve holds U.S. Treasury bonds worth $4.5 trillion. Correspondent Moon Ji-woong explained in detail, "If we break down the $40 trillion U.S. debt, about $9.4 trillion is U.S. Treasury bonds. U.S. Treasury bonds held by foreign governments. Among them, the largest position, held by the U.S. private sector, is about $16 trillion."

The proportion of short-term Treasury bills (T-bills) on the Fed's balance sheet has increased by $342 billion over the past year. Most of the Fed's total $4.5 trillion in U.S. Treasury holdings have grown in the form of short-term T-bills. Correspondent Moon Ji-woong pointed out, "The U.S. Treasury bonds held by the Fed now amount to $4.5 trillion. That's a $340 billion increase compared to a year ago, mostly in T-bills. The Fed's short-term Treasury holdings have increased by $340 billion in one year," raising questions about the Fed's short-term Treasury purchases, which contradict its tightening stance.

Three key economic events are noteworthy for next week. On August 26, the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation data will be released, with headline inflation expected at 3.7%. This will be an important indicator for gauging the Fed's monetary policy direction. Following this, on August 27, semiconductor company Nvidia's earnings report will be announced. Nvidia's performance is expected to provide important clues for understanding trends in the artificial intelligence (AI) related market. Finally, the Jackson Hole Meeting will be held from August 27 to 30, with a keynote speech by Chairman Kevin Warsh scheduled for August 28. Correspondent Moon Ji-woong emphasized, "Next week's schedule has three main events. PCE inflation will be released on August 26. Nvidia's earnings will be released on August 27. The Jackson Hole Meeting will be held from August 27 to 30," explaining that these three events will be the main focal points for the market next week.