OpenAI Revenue Controversy: What is the Reality?

The market expected OpenAI's annual revenue to be $70 billion, but the actual announced revenue was $50 billion. This resulted in a difference of approximately $20 billion, or about 30%, which was perceived as a 'revenue shock' by the market.

Director Jeon In-gu cited differences in revenue calculation methods, diagnosing the situation as a mere controversy, not a shock.

The halt of Samsung Electronics' share buybacks and a decline in SK Hynix ADRs, among other global related stocks, weakened the index. Foreigners net sold 29 trillion won over a month, continuing a daily average sell-off of over 1 trillion won. Foreign investors have been selling 1 trillion to 2 trillion won daily, dumping 29 trillion won in the past month.

Concurrently, Samsung Electronics' share buybacks are presumed to have stopped, and the simultaneous decline of global related stocks, such as SK Hynix ADRs, added further downward pressure on the Korean stock market.

Anthropic uses an accounting method that records total settlements as revenue and cloud costs as expenses. In contrast, OpenAI only records the net revenue they receive, excluding amounts to be paid to partners.

The $70 billion expected by the market was a figure arbitrarily applying Anthropic's revenue calculation method to OpenAI. However, OpenAI adopted a structure that reflects only the net amount it secured as revenue, excluding costs to be paid to partners.

OpenAI adhered to its existing accounting method and announced $50 billion as actual revenue, and this difference was the main cause of the 'revenue shock'.

OpenAI is steadily growing, but the market itself set high expectations and then became disappointed, leading to a stock price adjustment. Director Jeon In-gu stated, "It's true that OpenAI is growing. But for the market to interpret it as it pleases and then say, 'Oh, it's not,' and then call it a shock, isn't that a bit ambiguous?"

The 1.39% decline in the Nasdaq 100 index was due to an adjustment in corporate value that the market had already priced in at $70 billion. The gap between optimistic interpretations of tech companies and the actual speed of profit realization caused increased stock price volatility.

While technology development expects a five-year period, the investment market tends to form expectations based on the most optimistic forecast of two years. Technology experts anticipate a minimum of five years, but the investment market focuses on profitability two years out, the most optimistic scenario, fostering high expectations.

When investment returns are not immediate, market anxiety and concerns tend to intensify. Early-stage technology investors should maintain a long-term perspective or consider strategies for quickly realizing profits when the market overheats.

Anthropic signed a long-term agreement to spend $518 billion (approximately 700 trillion won) on cloud infrastructure over 10 years. 80% of this expenditure must be paid regardless of actual computing resource usage.

OpenAI is also attracting an additional $30 billion in investment, and such large-scale capital injections contribute to increasing corporate value while also posing a financial burden.

Factors of hope in the AI market include technological advancement, potential for national support, and its potential as an innovative technology. Director Jeon evaluated the potential for AI technology development, national support, and innovation as positive hopeful elements.

Conversely, factors increasing uncertainty in the AI market include expanding deficits, regulatory concerns, the need for additional investment, delayed monetization, impact from interest rate hikes, and increased component and equipment costs. He added that expanding deficits, regulatory concerns, the need for massive investment, and monetization uncertainty are limitations faced by investors.