Ukraine War Expands to Middle East, Korean Peninsula

Recently, Ukraine attacked an Iranian merchant ship in the Caspian Sea, believed to be used for transporting military supplies between Russia and Iran. This attack appears aimed at cutting off military supply lines to Russia. In response, Iran has threatened military retaliation, raising concerns that this clash could escalate beyond the Ukraine war into a direct confrontation between Russia and Iran against the West. Some even fear that these two battlefields could merge into one.

Russia is purchasing and utilizing Iranian-made Shahed drones on the battlefield, and is independently improving this drone technology. Ukraine, on the other hand, primarily used Turkish Bayraktar drones at the beginning of the war, but is now strengthening its own drone capabilities through local production and domestication. Both nations are making drones a core military asset and focusing on technological development.

When the war with Iran erupted, U.S. forces suffered significant damage from Iranian drone attacks. U.S. military bases in the Gulf region, specifically in Bahrain, Oman, Kuwait, and Qatar, were attacked by Iranian drones, sustaining an estimated damage of over $10 billion. This damage is so severe that recovery is expected to take more than five years, clearly exposing the limitations of the U.S. military's drone defense systems and navigation control capabilities.

In June, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy toured the Gulf region and offered to share his country's expertise in intercepting Russian drones with Gulf nations. This can be seen as Ukraine's offer of cooperation to address the lack of U.S. military counter-drone defense systems. Indeed, during recent NATO exercises, U.S., German, Polish, and other NATO member forces conducted counter-drone defense training under Ukrainian guidance. Ukraine is thus seeking to expand its international influence by leveraging its counter-drone technology.

After the Iranian fleet in the Caspian Sea was blocked by the U.S. in the Strait of Hormuz, Iran began seeking logistics cooperation with Russia via the Caspian Sea. Ukrainian President Zelenskyy detected these movements and attacked Iranian vessels with unmanned surface vehicles and cruise missiles. This is analyzed as Ukraine's intention to use an escalation of the war with Iran as a pretext to gain additional Western support. Iran showed restraint in immediate retaliation, fearing an increase in the number of combatants.

Türkiye's primary reason for engaging in checking Russia is the situation in Syria. Türkiye aims to prevent the emergence of a pro-Russian regime supported by Russia in Syria, thereby suppressing Kurdish independence movements and ensuring its own security. Believing that Ukraine's ability to tie down Russia is necessary to block Russian influence, Türkiye is supporting Ukraine from behind the scenes. This is the result of Türkiye's complex calculations to prevent instability in Syria and resolve the Kurdish issue.

Former President Donald Trump's order to reduce the United States Forces Korea (USFK) exercises (UFS) is analyzed as stemming from his subjective judgment and capriciousness. At the time, Trump was facing a major political crisis due to the Iran issue and was under considerable stress leading up to the midterm elections. In a situation where none of his allies—South Korea, Japan, or any European country—were assisting him with the Iran issue, Trump attempted to approach the North Korean issue aggressively to break diplomatic isolation.

Former President Trump's approach to North Korea was sudden and without prior coordination or back-channel discussions, provoking North Korea. This bizarre and unorthodox approach failed to reflect North Korea's changed calculations since the 2019 Hanoi summit. Both North Korea and the South Korean government were caught off guard by the sudden approach without prior coordination, leading to the assessment that it was not a systematic approach to reframe the situation by year-end.

Despite former President Trump's unilateral announcement to suspend the ROK-US combined exercises, the South Korean government reacted with surprising calm. At the time, President Lee Jae-myung expressed respect for President Trump's decision and gratitude for his efforts towards peace on the Korean Peninsula. Furthermore, Defense Minister Ahn Gyu-baek emphasized that the suspension of drills would not hinder national defense, attempting to calm public anxiety. This is interpreted as the South Korean government's diplomatic judgment, prioritizing stability on the Korean Peninsula despite the unilateral decision from the U.S.

China is taking an even tougher stance against the U.S. on the Taiwan issue. Recently, President Xi Jinping declared a much stronger position on Taiwan than before. This stance is also affecting Korea-China relations. Recently, South Korean ruling and opposition lawmakers attempted to visit China to discuss climate change and environmental issues, but the entry of lawmakers who had visited Taiwan was denied, leading to the cancellation of the event and deepening diplomatic friction.

North Korea is estimated to have earned approximately $2 billion in foreign currency through its relationship with Russia since the Russia-Ukraine war. For North Korea, which has faced economic difficulties for nearly 30 years, foreign currency income of this magnitude could be a significant driver of economic growth. North Korea is pursuing economic benefits based on the U.S. dollar rather than simple international pressure, strengthening its ties with Russia. This is analyzed as an opportunity for North Korea to alleviate its economic hardship.

North Korea's close alignment with Russia is increasing the cost of the Ukraine war for the West. Currently, the European Union is providing 70 billion euros in aid to Ukraine. Experts argue that preventing further deployment of North Korean troops, rather than simply providing weapons to Ukraine, is a key strategy to significantly reduce the West's war costs. In other words, a scenario is proposed where additional aid is offered to North Korea and North Korean issues are resolved through dialogue to prevent its alignment with Russia, thereby reducing war costs. There is also a possibility that figures like former President Trump might pursue such a North Korea strategy.