Lee Jae-myung's Approval Rating in Seoul at 27.3%…Accelerating Lame Duck

Lee Jae-myung's approval rating in Seoul recorded 27.3%, drawing attention from political circles. Seoul is a barometer of national public sentiment and a region with a high concentration of politically engaged individuals, meaning a drop in approval here carries serious implications. Analysis suggests that issues directly impacting citizens' lives, such as real estate problems and tax burdens, have significantly contributed to the decline in support.

Strong criticism has been raised regarding the Democratic Party's cabinet appointments. Appointments are seen not just as placing individuals but as a core indicator of a message and a philosophy of national governance. Kim Ki-heung pointed out the inappropriateness of specific individuals like Yong Hye-in and Kim Seung-won, analyzing that such appointments would negatively affect the 2030 generation, who prioritize fairness.

He strongly criticized, saying, “I believe appointments are a message and a philosophy of national governance, and in that regard, I think they put forward people just like themselves,” pointing out that current appointments reveal the leader's autocratic governance philosophy. Criticism also emerged that the appointment of specific individuals undermines the party's value of fairness.

Such appointments erode the trust of younger generations in the Democratic Party and raise questions about fairness, which is considered the most important value among young people. Ultimately, concerns are growing that these appointment issues could directly lead to a decline in the party's approval rating.

Kim Min-seok's approval rating was recorded at 32.1%. In particular, an approval rating of only 50% even among the Democratic Party's internal supporters is interpreted as reflecting skepticism both inside and outside the party just two weeks after the national convention concluded. Analysis suggests that critical views within and outside the party regarding mega-project pledges, such as the 800 trillion won plan, have influenced the approval rating.

This phenomenon indicates a situation where public opinion does not follow even when the leadership exerts effort, suggesting that internal party instability is intensifying.

The factional conflict between Supreme Council member Kim Min-seok and Assembly member Jeong Cheong-rae within the Democratic Party is intensifying. This could expand beyond a simple issue of party leadership to who will control nominations for next year's general election. Kim Ki-heung explained the essence of the conflict, stating, “This is not merely a matter of who becomes party leader, but a conflict between factions. It extends to who will lead the nominations for the general election.”

Some also point out that Supreme Council member Kim Min-seok's arrogant attitude is causing resentment among Democratic Party supporters. This attitude, seemingly disregarding moderate voters, is analyzed as potentially becoming a basis for judgment in future general elections.

Such inter-factional clashes deepen party division and ultimately weaken the overall solidarity of the party, negatively affecting its competitiveness in the general election. In particular, concerns are raised that the struggle for nomination control could escalate into internal factional infighting.

Telegram messages revealing internal distrust within the Democratic Party's Ethics Audit Group have been disclosed, causing a ripple effect. Telegram messages sent by Deputy Head Kang Min-gu to Supreme Council member Park Seon-won hint at a conflict with Assembly member Jeong Cheong-rae's side regarding the appointment of a former prosecutor's investigator by Ethics Audit Group Head Kim Ki-pyo. Specifically, the messages suggest that Deputy Head Jang In-jae, from Jeong Cheong-rae's side, citing his background as a prosecutor's investigator, claimed that 'work seems to have started' against Assembly member Kim Ki-pyo.

Kim Ki-heung explained in detail, "It seems Deputy Head Kang Min-gu sent a Telegram to Supreme Council member Park Seon-won, and the content suggests that Deputy Head Jang In-jae from Jeong Cheong-rae's side, being a former prosecutor's investigator, implies that 'work seems to have started' against Assembly member Kim Ki-pyo."

As this situation, which could be perceived as internal strife, has been made public, conflicts within the Democratic Party are surfacing. The situation where trust has collapsed even within the audit group, which handles ethical issues, is criticized as potentially having a fatal impact on the party's morality and credibility.

Ultimately, concerns are raised that such internal conflict not only harms party unity and projects a negative image externally, but also could paralyze the party's core function of ethics auditing.

A warning has been issued about the danger of elected power pressuring appointed power. This is criticized as a 'populist' means of governance that could undermine the democratic principle of the separation of powers.

Kim Ki-heung asserted, “Elected power suppresses appointed power. While they call it the separation of powers, that is populism,” emphasizing that liberal democracy must operate within the framework of constitutional spirit. Furthermore, he criticized the governance methods of Hitler and Lee Jae-myung in the same vein, pointing out that populist governance can threaten democracy.

With the increase in a sergeant's monthly salary to 2 million won, concerns have arisen regarding the sense of deprivation among junior military officers (staff sergeants, second lieutenants). Kim Ki-heung conveyed voices from the field, stating, “Aren't sergeants getting around 2 million won? As a result, many junior officers, like staff sergeants or second lieutenants, think, 'Even a private gets 2 million won, so why should I suffer for several years…' and don't apply for long-term service, just completing their mandatory service and leaving.”

This is more than just a pay issue; it raises fundamental questions about military honor and sense of mission. As cases of junior officers not applying for long-term service and only completing mandatory service increase, concerns are raised that it could negatively affect the overall skill level and morale of the military.

Therefore, there is a call to boost the pride of soldiers, which cannot be solved by money alone, and to consider institutional safeguards such as converting salaries into lump sums and restricting their use, to boost the morale of service members. It was emphasized that ensuring reasonable equity in treatment between military officers and soldiers is important.

Criticism has been raised regarding the governance philosophy behind the appointment of the Minister of National Defense. Kim Ki-heung argued, "Ultimately, someone smarter than oneself shouldn't be the Minister of National Defense. They won't listen. They appoint a flawed and uninformed minister and then take command themselves," pointing out an apparent intention to exclude capable individuals and appoint someone easy to control.

This appointment method can be interpreted as a tendency not to use people smarter than oneself, and he cited the case of Park Ji-hyang, former chairman of the Northeast Asian History Foundation, to support this suspicion. The criticism is that there is an intention to seize actual command by placing a controllable individual, rather than an expert, in an important position like the Minister of National Defense.

As Lee Jae-myung's approval rating continues to decline, political crisis is intensifying. His 27% approval rating in Seoul is interpreted as a 'dead duck' sign, beyond a simple lame duck. Kim Ki-heung warned of further decline in approval, stating, “Seoul hitting 27% means it will be 20% next week. Then, to become a dead duck, I think it's over when it drops to the 10% range.”

This decline in approval could lead to a virtual halt in the functioning of government organizations and cause serious disruptions in state affairs. Additionally, analysis suggests that issues such as criminal proceeds laundering and the abandonment of appeals related to the Daejang-dong project are complexly affecting the decline in approval.

A 'dead duck' state signifies a virtual loss of political influence, which is expected to deal a fatal blow to Lee Jae-myung's leadership. Along with internal and external criticism, there is a strong possibility of losing momentum for key policy initiatives.

In conjunction with Lee Jae-myung's declining approval rating, the possibility of a change in attitude among pro-Lee Jae-myung politicians has been raised. Kim Ki-heung stated, "I think the turning point is the moment when they fail to be elected to the Supreme Council in this national convention; that moment is Lee Jae-myung's true last... in stock market terms, isn't it called a 'dead cat bounce'?" predicting that political calculations could change based on the convention results. The possibility of defections among pro-Lee politicians, such as Assembly member Kim Min-seok, is being discussed, which is analyzed as posing an even greater threat to Lee Jae-myung's political standing.