Michael Burry's Shifting Strategies

However, Burry has also issued repeated crash warnings in 2017, 2021, 2022, and January 2023, often missing subsequent market rallies.

The public often focuses on these 'big' market calls, overlooking his foundational years as an analyst where he made significant, less-publicized investment successes.

In November 2025, Michael Burry closed his fund and deregistered with the SEC, ending his requirement to file quarterly 13F forms for public disclosure.

He subsequently launched a paid newsletter, which now attracts 335,000 subscribers, through which he frequently discloses his trades, including ticker symbols, prices paid, and his rationale, often in real-time.

This new communication method provides more immediate and detailed information compared to the delayed and less frequent SEC filings.

Before launching his fund, Michael Burry's online posts were closely monitored by professional managers at institutions like Fidelity, Morgan Stanley, Vanguard, and White Mountains Insurance.

Joel Greenblatt, renowned value investor and author of 'The Little Book That Beats the Market,' recognized Burry's talent and provided $1 million to seed Scion Capital.

Burry officially left his medical career in November 2000 to establish his investment firm, marking his full transition into finance.

In 2001, Scion Capital achieved a 55% return, significantly outperforming the S&P 500 which fell by 11.88% in the same year.

From 2001 to 2003, Scion consistently delivered an average annual return of 36%, contrasting sharply with the Nasdaq's more than 80% decline during the same period.

Burry emphasized that his success stemmed from focusing on mispriced individual businesses rather than attempting to predict overall market movements, adopting a principle of having 'no market view at all.'

In May 2005, Michael Burry initiated his significant bet against the housing market by purchasing $60 million in credit default swaps from Deutsche Bank.

By October 2005, his position in these credit default swaps had grown to at least $1 billion, reflecting his high conviction in an impending market downturn.

During this period, investors criticized Burry, demanding their money back and accusing him of fraud due to the ongoing monthly premiums on a non-performing position, which led him to lock his fund to prevent withdrawals.

Ultimately, Burry's foresight resulted in $725 million in profits for his investors and an additional $100 million for himself, with Scion Capital achieving a 490% return while the S&P only gained 2%.

Michael Burry's notable successes include early investments in Apple (2001), Avanti, Maxar, Sportsman's Warehouse, Charter, Generac, and Alphabet.

However, his record also includes unsuccessful ventures, such as trades in Tailored Brands, Bed Bath & Beyond, 2023 index puts, and Tesla shorts.

Burry publicly acknowledged his error in calling a 'sell' in January 2023, reflecting a willingness to admit when his market timing is incorrect.

Despite some short-term gains, Burry's 10-year performance has generally lagged behind the S&P, though he notably outperformed the market during the 2021-2024 period.

Media reports often inflate the scale of Burry's bets by confusing 'notional value' with actual capital risked, where notional value represents the total underlying value of shares in an option, not the premium paid for the option itself.

Burry ceased filing public reports because the media consistently misinterpreted his regulatory disclosures, leading to inaccurate portrayals of his investment activities.

Scion Asset Management officially terminated its SEC registration on November 10, 2025, marking an end to its public reporting obligations.

Just 13 days later, Michael Burry launched a paid newsletter, which has quickly grown to over 335,000 subscribers, serving as his new primary channel for investment disclosure.

While traditional 13F filings, which were quarterly and delayed by 45 days, are no longer available, Burry's newsletter now offers increased transparency by providing real-time data on tickers and pricing.

The speaker highlighted that despite the cessation of formal paperwork, Burry's transparency has actually improved through these frequent, direct updates to his subscribers.

Michael Burry's top long positions currently include Lululemon, Molina Healthcare, and Mercado Libre, indicating a focus on specific growth and healthcare sectors.

His short positions target Oracle, Palantir, Nvidia, and a semiconductor ETF, signaling caution towards certain technology and chip sectors.

On September 9, Burry significantly reduced his market exposure by trimming all existing positions and selling his put options on Nvidia and Palantir.

He expressed a clear intention to hold cash, noting, "This will be an interesting market this fall," suggesting a cautious outlook for the upcoming market period.

Michael Burry's track record highlights that disciplined processes, rather than intuition, serve as the primary defense against emotional decision-making.

Michael Burry's consistent success is attributed to a disciplined process of thorough analysis, rather than relying on intuition or market predictions.

Documenting and regularly reviewing investment principles helps investors avoid common pitfalls such as panic selling during downturns or chasing trends out of FOMO (fear of missing out).

Lululemon constitutes 17% of Michael Burry's portfolio, with the company currently holding an 11.63 billion-dollar market capitalization and approximately 2.3 billion in debt.

The stock is trading at 8.5 times its free cash flow, a valuation deemed "absurdly cheap" by the host.

Despite a recent quarterly decline, Lululemon maintains strong financial health, indicated by its high gross margins of 56%.

However, a recent quarterly comparison reveals a decrease in revenue, falling from 2.53 billion in the second quarter of 2025 to 2.42 billion in the second quarter of 2026.

This divergence between consistent long-term expansion and a short-term dip suggests a need to determine if it is a temporary market perception issue or a more fundamental problem within the company.

For the next decade, the firm forecasts profit margins and free cash flow capped at 14% while assuming revenue growth remains between 2% and 6%.

Revenue growth is conservatively projected between 2% and 6% for the next decade, while profit margins and free cash flow are expected to remain within a 10-14% range.

The valuation uses P/E ratios of 13, 17, and 21, which are benchmarked against the long-term averages of the S&P 500, to arrive at a range of potential stock prices.

The host expresses a personal disinclination to invest in Lululemon, stating a preference for companies with a high probability of enduring for several decades.

This contrasts with Michael Burry's approach, which is characterized by identifying and capitalizing on short-term market mispricings.

Burry’s strategy often involves taking positions in undervalued companies that may not necessarily fit a long-term 'buy and hold' philosophy, but offer significant returns from market corrections.

Market analysts project earnings per share will rise from $38 this year to $175 within four years, citing a narrowing gap between net income and free cash flow as a primary driver.

This anticipated growth in valuation is primarily driven by the expected narrowing gap between the company's net income and free cash flow.

Using free cash flow, the valuation generates a range with a low of 5,600, a high of 30,000, and a mid-point of 13,000.

The host voiced concerns regarding potential competition from Amazon in the e-commerce space.

A warning was also issued about the inherent risks of investing in international companies, especially when data reliability is not fully assured.

Short selling stocks offers unlimited time but carries infinite risk, whereas the maximum profit is capped at 100%.

Put options, in contrast, come with a defined strike price and an expiration date, introducing a time constraint on the bet.

A trader risks losing the entire premium paid for a put option if the stock does not reach the target price before expiration.

Michael Burry's recent use of put options introduces a new time-sensitive element to his market bets, which was not present in his earlier, open-ended short positions.

Michael Burry noted that he is moving timelines up for his positions, with Micron put options expiring in June 2027 and Palantir and Nasdaq puts set for September 2027.

The host cautioned viewers against blindly following headlines and copying trades, emphasizing the importance of understanding a company's intrinsic value over market timing.

Burry's past successes are attributed to his diligent, independent research and analysis conducted away from public scrutiny, rather than his ability to predict market turns.

He has stated, "Fundamentally, I am moving timelines up," signaling a shift towards more time-bound investment strategies.