Bitcoin Eyes $120K by Year-End: Is a Bull Market Starting?

Meanwhile, the core PCE index, which excludes food and energy, rose 4.2% year over year, in line with market forecasts.

For example, when beef prices rise, people buy more chicken, and PCE captures this substitution effect well.

This item is calculated based on total investment assets, and its calculation method is set to change starting in September.

Current inflation data reflects the period after the Russia-Ukraine war 'ceasefire.' The market is focusing on the fact that July inflation rose only modestly despite occurring after the ceasefire, and a '4% peak theory,' that inflation will peak in the 4% range, is emerging.

A reading above 1 means long-term holders are in profit, while a reading below 1 means they are at a loss.

The long-term holder SOPR has recently been declining after reaching high levels. This shows long-term holders are realizing profits during the uptrend and releasing sell-side supply.

The market interprets this as a healthy profit-taking process occurring before a bull market begins. The view is that the price adjustment from long-term holders' supply entering the market serves as a launching pad for the next rally.

This is seen as a positive signal that cools market overheating and encourages new investor inflows, and similar patterns have been observed just before past bull markets.

According to a Wall Street Journal report, major global banks are forming a consortium to jointly issue stablecoins. They plan to start with a dollar-pegged stablecoin and later expand the peg to other currencies.

In the past, overseas stablecoins such as USDC grew largely through startups like Circle. Recently, however, regulators, concerned about erosion of bank deposit bases, have moved to encourage banks to take part in stablecoin issuance. As a result, joint bank-led stablecoin issuance attempts are increasing overseas as well.

Both forms of digital currency issuance and use are being discussed in the United States.

Domestic crypto exchange Korbit announced it would eliminate trading fees for one year starting on the 24th, reigniting competition. Two days later, Coinone said it would join the zero-fee policy, rekindling the race to the bottom among domestic exchanges.

Back in 2023, Bithumb introduced a zero-fee policy after its market share fell to 9.8%. The result was a surge to the 30% range, but the policy was discontinued after four months due to profitability concerns, including preparation for an IPO.

When trading fees are waived, trading volume typically rises, but concerns have been raised that more coins may spike unexpectedly. Fees act as a significant constraint on artificially propping up coin prices.

This carries the risk that certain players could inflate volume by repeatedly executing large trades at low cost, or manipulate coin prices and harm investors. Similar investor losses have occurred on overseas exchanges such as Binance in the past.

A plan to limit major shareholder stakes in exchanges to 20% has been raised and has become a major industry issue.

Proposals for a crypto exchange major shareholder stake cap have floated figures such as 20% for individuals and 34% for corporations, but nothing has been finalized. Within the Democratic Party, there are also differences over the cap ratio, delaying legislation.

The bill, drafted by the Financial Services Commission, is to be formally introduced by the National Assembly's Political Affairs Committee, with a target of early September. However, considering party negotiations and the subcommittee schedule, passage within the year is expected to be difficult. Some say that getting it introduced at all would be a relief.

A cap on crypto exchange major shareholder stakes could significantly affect control in companies with merger structures. For example, if Naver Financial becomes the full major shareholder of Dunamu and Dunamu becomes a 100% subsidiary, a stake cap on major shareholders would inevitably require changes to existing investment and management structures.

Similarly, it could affect relationships such as that between Mirae Asset and Korbit, potentially requiring changes in stake structures or business restructuring. This could demand a broad review of governance and investment strategies at crypto-related companies.

Accordingly, depending on the final content of the bill, significant changes to the business direction and market landscape of major domestic crypto-related companies are expected, warranting close observation.

A major problem in crypto taxation is that the standards for calculating acquisition cost have not yet been clearly defined. Under current rules, if acquisition cost cannot be documented, only up to 50% of the disposal price may be recognized as necessary expenses.

As a result, even if someone buys crypto for 100 million won and sells it for 100 million won, if they cannot document the purchase, they could suddenly owe 10 million won in tax. This could impose unpredictable tax burdens on investors, which is a concern.

Under the tax system, taxpayers are fundamentally responsible for submitting proof of acquisition themselves. The Korean tax authority requires documentary evidence for everything and makes judgments based on it.

In this setup, a practical problem arises: coins bought on exchanges that have since closed, or coins that have disappeared, may make acquisition cost documentation difficult. Clear measures to address this are urgently needed.