This report analyzes the impact of the US government's pressure on Chinese battery companies, semiconductor index rebalancing, and changes in energy policy on domestic industries.
The US government has openly pressured Ford to cut ties with Chinese battery company CATL. This US 'decoupling from China' trend is showing signs of spreading in the Energy Storage System (ESS) market, leading to expectations that domestic battery companies will gain indirect benefits. As a result, related stocks, which had been struggling due to sluggish EV demand, showed a rebound.
Samsung Electronics' index weight is 23%, and SK Hynix's is 37%, both exceeding the index inclusion weight limit of 20%. The recent surge in semiconductor ETF assets has led to an increase in the volume of sell-offs.
Hanmi Semiconductor is estimated to receive around 300 billion won, Jusung Engineering around 180 billion won, and Wonik IPS and EO Technics each around 80 billion won in buying. These estimated buying amounts are similar to or exceed the usual trading volume of these Sooboojang stocks.
The US Treasury's announced plan to repurchase bonds, totaling 6 billion dollars, fell short of market expectations, leading to sell-offs driven by disappointment. The Treasury had initially raised market expectations too high by mentioning buybacks, so the announced volume, falling short of those expectations, led to an increase in interest rates. CEO Lee Dong-geun explained that this disappointment caused interest rates to rise.
The key variable will be how long the oil price maintains above the $100 level. Based on past examples, the current situation can be interpreted as a phase of expanding oil price volatility.
CEO Lee Dong-geun emphasized that external events, in addition to internal factors, are also significant. However, he noted that the market is likely to gradually normalize after these events conclude.
Meta is fully launching 'Agentic AI,' planning to expand its personal AI assistant service to 3 billion subscribers by utilizing existing SNS data from platforms like Instagram and Facebook. However, it needs to be verified whether Meta's AI has truly improved its performance compared to several AI assistants already on the market. CEO Lee Dong-geun expressed skepticism, saying, "Honestly, I need to check further whether there has been an improvement."
Indeed, a combined cycle power plant was decided as the first investment in the US. Combining former President Trump's series of remarks and his mention of a 'nuclear renaissance,' CEO Lee Dong-geun analyzed that the US energy policy is likely to shift towards nuclear power.
Particularly in the nuclear power sector, benefits from the APR1400 value chain are expected. In the long term, the renewable energy sector also deserves attention, and CEO Lee Dong-geun emphasized that the US midterm elections could be a crucial turning point for changes in renewable energy policy.
This is because Doosan Enerbility possesses various momentum drivers simultaneously, including gas turbines and nuclear power. In the renewable energy sector, companies like Hanwha Solutions and OCI Holdings in solar power, and CS Wind and Taewoong in wind power, were suggested as stocks that could stand out in the market.
The US policy to exclude Chinese batteries is also interpreted as a pre-emptive move ahead of the US-China summit. The US aims to cut its high dependence on Chinese battery technology and supply chains, but it faces a dilemma in the EV sector where securing price or technological competitiveness is difficult without cooperation with Chinese companies. In this situation, the challenge of technological self-reliance remains.
As the US government is likely to take a hardline stance against China, attention is focused on the direction of secondary battery-related stocks. Recently, secondary battery stocks have shown movement, and CEO Lee Dong-geun believes that domestic secondary battery companies have already hit rock bottom and the timing for profit improvement is approaching. Therefore, a positive approach is expected to be appropriate in the future. Policy changes in the US before and after the Xi Jinping-Trump summit are noteworthy.
In particular, it is recommended to increase investment in LG Energy Solution and Samsung SDI, and benefits from the European Industrial Acceleration Act (IAA) are also anticipated.
In the shipbuilding equipment sector, engines and fitting valves show remarkable growth. Hanwha Engine and HD Hyundai Marine Engine saw a surge in orders in the first half, and their ability to expand engine production capacity is a strength. This means that increased orders can directly translate into performance through expansion, leading to a greater upside in performance and signaling a potential long-term growth cycle. In the case of fitting valves, their application fields are diversifying beyond shipbuilding to include AI centers and nuclear power plants, securing growth momentum.
The shipbuilding industry has recently experienced a stock slump, which is interpreted as concerns about delays in the Qatar project being reflected in stock prices. In reality, the shipbuilding 'Big 3' recorded double-digit operating profit margins in Q2, indicating no damage to order and performance momentum. CEO Lee Dong-geun emphasized that the shipbuilding industry is performing well, and the stock slump is a misunderstanding, expressing expectations for high-value-added LNG carriers and floating data center (FDC) projects.
Answers come from the transcript, with the exact spot cited.
Want the next article from 매일경제TV?
When 매일경제TV publishes, we'll write it up like the one you just read and email it to you.
매일경제TV published 246 in the last 7 days.
