From Apple Duo Launch to AI Semiconductor Demand

Chinese manufacturers have already introduced diverse foldable phone lineups, creating competition, and consumer curiosity about foldable phones is declining.

Instead, the high price of foldable phones makes consumers hesitate to buy, dampening market vitality.

While Samsung Display will supply the display, hinge components are anticipated to be diversified to multiple suppliers like Amphenol.

Apple expects a production volume of approximately 6 million units, which is interpreted as a conservative approach in the initial market entry phase.

Memory prices are nearing $2, which is a major reason for the increase in device costs.

As the smartphone replacement cycle lengthens, the growth of the foldable phone market is also likely to stagnate. High prices act as a factor that makes consumers further hesitate to purchase.

Although Apple's entry into the foldable phone market will result in 6 million new shipments, it is widely predicted that shipments from other companies will decrease. The global smartphone replacement cycle is lengthening, and rising memory prices are further dampening consumer purchasing sentiment.

Due to these combined factors, overall foldable phone market growth is expected to be limited despite Apple's market entry.

This technological advancement is interpreted as Apple's strategy to maintain technological superiority in the premium smartphone market.

Unlike other tech companies making large-scale AI infrastructure investments, Apple is being evaluated as having delayed on-device AI growth.

The market now places greater value on securing future growth engines in the AI era than on a company's cash flow, and there is a strong perception that Apple is not responding quickly to this change. Investment in AI data centers has emerged as a key factor determining not only technological advancement but also a company's long-term growth potential.

Currently, Apple lacks its own AI data center construction or an image as a leading AI technology company, which contributes to the分散 of investor interest. This situation lowers Apple's investment attractiveness in the AI era.

Investors have doubts about whether Apple can secure a firm position in the AI competition, and this is impacting its stock price.

Increased fundraising for data center investments and corporate bond issuance are impacting interest rate hikes. The enormous capital required for data center construction is a major reason companies raise funds through corporate bond issuance.

Rising oil prices, coupled with an expanding trend of data center-related investments, are contributing to the persistence of high interest rates. These investments are expected to increase further in the future, and the current high inflation level is likely to become a constant phenomenon.

With competitor OpenAI's last round per-share valuation reaching around $1 trillion, expectations for other AI companies' IPOs have risen.

Anthropic also wants to be valued higher for newly issued shares than for shares issued before listing, but market consensus has not formed. Furthermore, concerns about profitability due to the expiration of long-term contracts for AI companies' data centers and cost rationalization are also affecting valuation issues.

These factors are collectively delaying Anthropic's IPO, and market doubts about the company's growth potential are increasing.

When a large company like Anthropic goes public, it can affect the stock prices of existing listed companies. Institutional investors tend to sell shares of similar companies they already hold to secure cash for new public offerings.

This can create a temporary supply gap, leading to a decline in peer group stock prices. However, such selling does not necessarily lead to a sell-off in the semiconductor industry itself.

After listing, Anthropic is expected to expand its data center infrastructure and build data centers directly through capital raising.

Such investments will boost demand for server memory semiconductors and Nvidia's GPUs, among other related semiconductors. Therefore, Anthropic's listing is expected to benefit companies in memory semiconductors and those like Nvidia.

Analysis suggests that one-sided growth, focused mainly on chipmakers as in the first half, may be difficult.

The semiconductor equipment sector is expected to grow continuously for the next five years. Therefore, a strategy of investing a certain proportion in MPE companies to balance the portfolio is now effective. This will help to flexibly respond to market changes and diversify risk.