US Stock Market: Only Memory Semiconductors and Coin Themes Survived. What are the Chances of Further Gains in Korea?

Amidst music, Manager Lee Ga-ram greeted viewers, announcing the start of the broadcast. Today's broadcast will discuss the US market summary, the connection to the Korean stock market, and today's market direction during the 10 minutes before the opening.

At 7:37 AM on Friday, August 21st, Manager Lee Ga-ram briefly summarized the key characteristics of the US stock market. He explained that only memory semiconductor-related stocks and coin-related theme stocks survived in the US market. Today's broadcast is scheduled to last approximately 10 minutes, and viewers were asked to confirm their audio and click 'like.' Starting at 7:38 AM, the broadcast aims to conclude quickly, ideally within 48 to 50 minutes.

After analyzing the stocks that survived in the US market, Manager Lee Ga-ram emphasized that the most important question is whether the Korean stock market can follow suit. Looking at the ETFs that rose in the US, Korea MS's Korean index ETF rose by 2.1%, and another Korea-related ETF also increased by 1.8%. Emerging market-related ETFs also rose by about 1%, and the Korea Active ETF showed strength of 0.88%. Most other US-related stocks showed weakness, while thematically, Bitcoin-related spot ETFs rose over 6%, memory semiconductors by 4.4%, and blockchain-related stocks also gained. In summary, it was a day where only semiconductor and Bitcoin-related stocks saw gains.

Excluding semiconductors, the Nasdaq, S&P, and Dow Jones indices all declined. Manager Lee Ga-ram cited the possibility of interest rate hikes and rising oil prices as the main reasons for the decline. Oil prices are not falling at all, with lows continuously rising, now reaching resistance at the previous high. He analyzed that if this trend does not break and continues to rise, it could cause greater market instability. He also mentioned that if the inflation index to be announced next month rises again, concerns about additional interest rate hikes could grow.

Despite the US government's announcement of bond buybacks, oil prices rose again, increasing concerns about interest rate hikes. The market tends to perceive this buyback policy as controlling the short-term pace of increase, rather than structurally curbing the rise in long-term interest rates. This perception is due to concerns about expanding fiscal deficits and undermining predictable issuance principles, leading to the belief that structural issues are not being resolved. Additionally, as Treasury Secretary Yellen commented on Iran sanctions on the 24th, moves to pressure Iran through economic sanctions, similar to former President Trump's aggressive remarks, are acting as upward pressure on oil prices. Persistent aggressive attitudes towards neighboring countries continue to drive up oil prices, which is the biggest burden on the market.

Anxiety due to rising oil prices and Iran sanctions continues, and the long-term interest rate issue is expanding beyond just the US. Manager Lee Ga-ram added that this has already been explained in public broadcasts on Tuesday and Thursday. The PCE inflation data and Treasury auction results to be released next week will also be important market variables. As interest rates continue to be a problem, it is ultimately only companies with solid earnings that can overcome high rates. However, Walmart's earnings announcement last night was unfavorable, causing consumer stocks across the board to fall, increasing anxiety about the US market.

Anxiety about the US economy is growing. Economic slowdown coupled with weak interest rates is considered one of the worst signals. Surging oil prices and a strong dollar also reflect these concerns. Furthermore, the perception that the buyback effect cannot structurally prevent long-term interest rate increases is spreading, highlighting concerns about deepening fiscal deficits and undermining issuance principles. The continuous increase in US debt is also an issue, giving further reason to closely monitor the interest rate situation along with economic concerns.

Looking at individual stocks, most showed a decline, with only energy-related stocks showing a slight increase. The stocks that did show gains were memory semiconductor-related stocks such as SanDisk, Seagate, SK Hynix ADR, and Micron. This is related to the recent surge in SK Hynix in Korea. As SK Hynix surged, the price of the US ETF DLE ETF, which holds a significant amount of it, also increased, leading to a synchronous rise in related component stocks like Micron and SanDisk. In contrast, Apple and non-tech companies continued to show weakness, maintaining a long-short structure. Not all semiconductors showed strength; rather, demand was primarily concentrated in memory semiconductors, and equipment stocks remained at an ordinary level.

The rise in memory semiconductors alone can simply be attributed to the influence of SK Hynix in Korea. Meanwhile, one reason for the further increase in US interest rates was Broadcom's issuance of $100 billion in corporate bonds through a separate company after market close to fund Anthropic. While US Treasury yields hover around 4.7%, Broadcom's corporate bonds offer significantly higher yields of 6-7%. With such a massive amount of corporate bonds being issued, institutional investors tend to sell US Treasuries and shift funds to higher-yielding non-tech corporate bonds. This causes a decline in Treasury prices and an increase in interest rates, a trend that even central bank intervention finds difficult to stop.

As institutional investors favor long-maturity, high-yield non-tech corporate bonds over 10-year and 30-year US Treasuries, there is an increasing demand to sell Treasuries and move into non-tech. This bond selling pressure leads to declining Treasury prices and rising interest rates, exacerbating market anxiety. Due to tightening in the dollar market, non-tech companies are actively investing, even issuing corporate bonds in other currencies. This flow of funds tends to concentrate in memory semiconductors. As there is a perception in the market that the excessive rise in memory semiconductors is burdensome, the fluctuation of stocks will be determined by the reaction of the Korean market. In other words, how the Korean stock market moves today is very important.

Amidst the overall weakness in the US market, Moderna, which surged yesterday, plunged again. This suggests the possibility of weakness in pharmaceutical bio stocks today. In contrast, cryptocurrency-related stocks showed strength. Expectations for the passage of the 'Creative Act' led to Bitcoin liquidations in the US, with Bitcoin's price surging over 10% in two days. This is the second-largest short cover phenomenon in history, indicating the inflow of speculative capital moving from the stock market to Bitcoin. This trend is leading to stock price increases for Strategies, Coinbase, and Circle, and related stocks are highly likely to rise in the Korean stock market as well.

As Bitcoin-related stocks showed strength in the US market, related stocks in the Korean market are also expected to rise. In a generally sluggish US market, Bitcoin's continued rise is due to speculative capital inflow as funds shift from the stock market to Bitcoin. Manager Lee Ga-ram mentioned Korean related stocks he had summarized yesterday, giving examples such as NHNKP, ISTN Global, Hataphi, Apple, Danal, Galaxia Moneytree, Kakao Pay, and Naver. Among these, ISTN Global, which is tradable from 8 AM, is expected to see further gains today after closing at its daily limit yesterday. In a market with little movement, if US coin stocks continue to move, a short-term theme could form, making it highly likely to be today's main theme.

Whether ISTN Global sees further gains is a key point to watch this morning around 9 AM. Looking at the overnight futures market, the overall market is not good due to an economic slowdown and weak consumption. However, overnight futures closed mostly flat after the day's gains. Accordingly, KOSPI is not expected to have major issues, but KOSDAQ is likely to see a slight decline as it closed lower in overnight trading compared to its opening price for the week. Ultimately, large-cap stocks like SK Hynix are expected to support KOSPI. Therefore, today's market is expected to show more differentiation by sector and individual stock than by index, and the US option expiry day could also increase volatility.

With US long-term interest rates continuing to be a drag, the realization of profits from Korean semiconductor stocks, which rose significantly yesterday, is important. Today's market is likely to move according to futures and options supply and demand. Manager Lee Ga-ram judged that it would be difficult to surpass the week's high futures price of 1140 today, and that a satisfactory week's close would be achieved as long as there isn't a sharp drop. In the derivatives market, if the index rises in the morning, call option sellers may emerge, limiting the upside. However, if it falls in the morning and then rebounds in the afternoon towards the high, call option selling could be unwound, leading to a higher close, which would be a positive signal for the market.

A rebound and higher close in the afternoon would be a more positive scenario for the market. Conversely, if there's a sharp rise in the morning, the upside could be limited, so chasing the rally should be avoided. The US may revive its volatility index after option expiry, so market anxieties remain. Therefore, maintaining a certain proportion of cash holdings is important, he emphasized. Today, sector differentiation will continue, and SK Hynix, in particular, will see an additional 650,000 shares listed today, bringing in 1 trillion won, so its stock price is unlikely to fall easily. Even if it does fall, it is highly likely to be bought back up once the selling is over.

Not only SK Hynix but also Samsung Electronics is expected to show downside rigidity with its ex-dividend date scheduled for next week. These two stocks are unlikely to fall and their downside may be capped, so focusing on such stocks in an unstable market is a wise strategy, Manager Lee Ga-ram advised. Another issue is that AI startup Anthropic is considering filing for an IPO in August, and SK Telecom and Naver hold stakes in Anthropic, making them notable related stocks. The potential for further strength in blockchain-related stock ISTN Global around 9 AM should also be watched closely. In terms of supply and demand, institutional buying of semiconductors and individual selling are important, and in the KOSDAQ market, institutional buying will be crucial today.

The current market requires a short-term, quick-response strategy. Manager Lee Ga-ram stated that he sold a portion of Alteogen yesterday and engaged in short-term trading like Codes Leverage. When approval ratings drop, it's often a time when something comes out in the market, so both the US and Korea should analyze with policy expectations in mind towards late August to early September. He encouraged viewers to refer to the MBN Gold August event (2 months + 1 month additional period, VIP benefits, etc.) and to participate in the weekly strategy public broadcast on Sunday night, where he will explain strategies for the last week of August and September.

Manager Lee Ga-ram informed viewers to use the Naver Band for real-time supply and demand updates during market hours. He predicted that today's market would show sector differentiation within a box-range, with funds likely to concentrate more on large semiconductor stocks like SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics. Thematically, he mentioned coin themes and mixed semiconductors as noteworthy. He wished viewers good profits and healthy accounts, a successful week's close, and a good day today. Manager Lee Ga-ram bid farewell, promising to meet again at the Sunday public broadcast.