Haberman on Trump's Post-Midterm Shake-Up: Wiles Out, Miller Elevated, Hegseth Uncertain

Haberman said that when a president says he is not going to fire someone, it often means little and frequently signals that the person will be fired soon, and that the move to replace Wiles had been brewing for some time and was not a surprise. She said Trump had been incredibly critical of Wiles behind the scenes and to her face, and to other people, over at least the last six months, if not longer. She added that several people inside the administration had been undermining Wiles as well.

Haberman said Miller was not one of those people. According to her reporting, Miller's allies made clear he was fine with Wiles staying on as chief of staff, but they believed he should get the job if she left. She also said a number of people had been raising questions about Wiles with the president.

Haberman said Trump berated Wiles in front of other people on election night in the East Room and blamed her for the losses. She added that he had also been very critical of James Blair, Wiles's close associate, in other circumstances. She said Trump had been berating Wiles for months about not finding a so-called leak related to his travel to Turkey during the NATO summit over the summer, when he was reportedly put in a refrigerator truck and officials told everybody he was on a plane that cabinet members were on, including Stephen Miller. Haberman said Miller was aware of the situation, at minimum.

Haberman described the combination of these events as an aggregate, and said the result puts a very controversial and polarizing figure in the role of chief of staff at a time when Democrats are focused on an economic populist message.

Haberman said that when a wave sweeps seats from Mississippi to Maine, it is not really a tactical campaign decision. She noted that this is a White House where policy is largely set by the president, who does not want to be reined in and wants decisions made by a small number of people.

Haberman compared the situation to earlier setbacks, including the Access Hollywood tape, the 2016 debate, and the 2020 election loss. She said that in each case Trump chose to maintain that he had won the 2020 election and to do everything he could to avoid seeing what voters said as a rebuke of him and his administration, which she said it absolutely is.

She said the Iran war is front and center in the reaction, but that it is not the only factor, and that the immigration crackdowns are among a number of events. From this, she said, Trump has one move: it is always more MAGA or more Trump.

Asked about Miller's view of the Iran war, Haberman said that reporting has produced mixed accounts. She said that what was clearly visible was not just Pete Hegseth standing by, but Stephen Miller behind the scenes. Her understanding, she said, is that Miller and Hegseth have been allies for quite some time, and that she and Jonathan Swan wrote about this in their book Regime Change.

Haberman said Miller was key in putting together the cabinet. She said that during reporting, a number of cabinet officials told her that they came into their jobs understanding that Miller was someone they needed to eagerly work with or be concerned about crossing.

Haberman said the same applied to Hegseth and to Marco Rubio, and said she had seen Rubio and Miller working together on Marine One.

Haberman said Hegseth had been known inside the West Wing as the biggest champion of the war early on, when most of Trump's advisers were against it. She said he could be impeached as soon as next week. Even if he is not, she said, there is the question of passing the defense spending bill, and how to do that while insisting the Pentagon is not an agency that needs more money.

Haberman noted that the Department of Homeland Security is the one well-funded agency in the government, and that Miller also has a lot of involvement with it. She said this might buy Hegseth time.

Haberman said that what seemed like denial of what happened on Tuesday is wearing off, and that Trump is coming to terms with what has happened and is increasingly unhappy about it. She compared this to the period after the November 2020 election, when Trump appeared almost in shock for the first day and a half and made muted, conciliatory remarks to people around him, such as saying they had done their best.

Haberman said it took a few days for Trump to reach the point of refusing to concede, and that she thinks something similar is happening now. She also said that multiple people in the administration had told her that Miller has been privately clear that he knows the Iran war has been viewed very negatively by the president's base voters, though she said it is not known exactly what Miller will do.

Haberman said Trump is also raising the question that other people are on the chopping block, not just Wiles and Hegseth, which she said does not mean much on its own. She said she does not think Trump wants to get rid of access, and that there could be any number of people. She also expected other changes, noting that Trump cares about two jobs, chief of staff and press secretary, and that one of those is unfilled.

Haberman described the factionalism and fighting inside the West Wing, saying people are jockeying for power or unsure where their power lies at this moment. She said that while the infighting had always been below the surface, most of this year has seen it revert to the mean and become more open. She added that Miller had cultivated relationships across factions, including with Jared Kushner and with Steve Bannon early in the first term.

A panelist, Adam, said Republicans lost Latino Americans by 28 points, a swing toward Democrats, and lost Asian-Americans with a 17-point swing toward Democrats. He said Trump had decided to double down after this overwhelming rejection by promoting Miller, whom the panelist described as the most extreme, hateful, white nationalist figure, to chief of staff.

Another panelist said Trump is doubling down on hatred and extremism at rallies while trying to reach out to minority voters he has just lost in huge swaths, and predicted it will be a dark few years in which Americans reject this path. This panelist said Miller seems to be Trump's spirit animal, like his id unleashed, and that Trump could have chosen differently but instead selected someone widely disliked and not known for conciliatory overtures to the left.

A panelist said that on election night Trump extended an olive branch and said he wanted to work with Democrats. In the last 72 hours, the panelist said, the base has pushed to go after opponents, with numerous tweets about lawfare putting people in jail, and that this has informed Trump's decision. The panelist said Trump recognizes he needs someone who will be a fighter amid all of these investigations.

A panelist said Miller is best known for his fiery moments on television but is involved in many facets of the administration. The panelist said he is well liked by the MAGA group, was involved with UFO matters, has been involved in some of the DOJ's efforts, and has also been on Capitol Hill. The panelist said Miller understands the ins and outs of policy because he has spent his entire life doing this, and called him an important asset for the president.

A panelist said that after a bloodbath for Republicans, the party should be reevaluating what did and did not work, and asked whether they are citing the DOJ effort as a success. The panelist argued that the war on terror, corruption, and the cost of living are the reasons Republicans lost.

On immigration, one panelist said that surprisingly Republicans were trusted more than Democrats on that issue, and that Republicans should not discard immigration at their peril. Another panelist said the way immigration policy was enacted, particularly under the Trump administration, was not effective, pointing to 'deportation Barbie' posing in front of prisons. Another said polling turned against Trump on immigration when family separation occurred in his first administration, and that Miller was involved in that overreach.

A panelist said Trump wants Miller to fight the oversight coming his way. The panelist said Miller is a lawyer who will be ferocious in turning down and trying to tear apart any Democratic effort to examine corruption, which the panelist described as one of the top issues in the campaign. The panelist said Miller is also meant to give a shot of energy to a movement that Miller began ten years ago and that he saw disintegrating in front of his eyes.

Another panelist said that corruption and affordability were the top two issues, and that Miller is a problematic figure to lead that effort given the intensity of the reaction to him. This panelist said Miller had been the public face of immigration until the president looked at polls and realized people hated him.

A panelist said Democrats should be celebrating, because they have control of the House and the Senate. Another panelist said the pushback from Democrats is that they now have to confront Miller directly. That panelist said Miller does get the MAGA base excited, which had been a key issue going into the midterms, when the base was less enthusiastic. The panelist said the base is now quite enthusiastic about the change.

On Wiles, a panelist said it is not unheard of to make changes after a midterm loss. He said Wiles is not comfortable going on camera or fighting for the president in public, and does most of her work in the background, whereas Miller is quite the opposite. He acknowledged that viewers might not like Miller's policies, and described him as a policy wonk who knows how to put policies together.

Panelists also debated whether the MAGA movement is over. One said that after the election many people said this was the end of MAGA, but argued that if Republicans are still trying to revive it, they should focus on the senators and governors who are still in office.

Trump praised Miller, saying he is a great fighter who has been with him since 2015 and before, that he is very loyal and smart, and that he has been an MVP every year. The panel discussed reporting that Trump still wants to pursue his agenda through executive action, bypassing Congress.

A panelist said that if that is Trump's view, he would not want to cut deals with the incoming Democrats, and would want to act as if the election had not happened. The panelist said Trump has said he wants to negotiate, but that Democrats have indicated within the last two days that they are not interested.

One guest said the midterm election was a rebuke of President Trump and his agenda, not a mandate for Democrats to pursue whatever policies they want over the next few years. The guest said that if one looks at the specific issues on which people voted, there are things that have to be delivered, citing ballot measures in Colorado and Washington state rejecting biological boys competing in girls' sports, and voter ID measures that passed.

Another panelist responded that the guest was repeating the same points that had helped Democrats win Texas, and argued that Miller's appointment as chief of staff would backfire on Republicans. That panelist said Americans voted against corruption and in favor of unity, citing James Talarico's campaign message of unity in Texas.