Apple-Driven Memory Sweep… Samsung's HBM4 Counterattack

In the absence of major issues that would drive interest rate cuts, it is necessary to pay attention to sectors and companies showing higher growth rates than the high-interest rate environment.

This trade truce was extended by only two months, not the originally anticipated one year, and structural conflicts related to rare earths and AI remain unresolved.

The trade truce period was also limited to a two-month extension, not the one year originally hoped for.

Structural issues such as conflicts over rare earths and AI remain unresolved.

The market evaluated the summit results as neutral or below, or as a compromise, concluding that neither side was satisfied.

Rather than resolving uncertainty, it is more likely to act as a loss of new momentum, potentially leading to some disappointed selling in early trading.

Starting with Micron at the end of September, Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix's earnings announcements and conference calls in October will draw market attention.

Starting with Micron's earnings announcement at the end of September, preliminary earnings for Samsung Electronics will be released in early October, followed by full earnings announcements and conference calls for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix at the end of October. Nvidia's earnings announcement is then expected in November.

Currently, the integrated 12-month forward price-to-earnings ratio (PER) for Samsung Electronics, SK Hynix, and Micron has fallen to the low 4s.

Samsung Electronics' profit estimates were lowered by about 10% due to exchange rate effects, but this is assessed as already priced into the market.

Mass shipments of High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) 4 are expected to be fully reflected in performance.

In particular, by directly manufacturing base dies through foundry, Samsung has a structure more favorable for securing margins compared to SK Hynix, and the possibility of a special dividend in case of an earnings surprise is also raised.

If long-term supply agreements are confirmed in earnings announcements, further price increases are expected. Apple's inventory accumulation, which holds 25% of the general DRAM market, is acting as a supply absorption factor, and it has accepted price increases of 30-40% from Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix.

Apple's demand for inventory accumulation, which accounts for 25% of the general DRAM market, is expected to absorb market supply.

If the signing of long-term supply agreements (LTAs) between Apple and memory companies is confirmed through earnings announcements, it is expected to act as a factor for further increases in memory prices.

In the past, the semiconductor industry was evaluated as a cyclical industry based on PBR (Price-to-Book Ratio).

The recent adoption of PER (Price-to-Earnings Ratio) evaluation reflects the view that the semiconductor cycle is becoming much longer, or its nature as a cyclical industry is weakening.

According to SK Chairman Chey Tae-won, this year's semiconductor demand fulfillment rate is 70-80%.

However, it is expected to fall to the 60% range next year, indicating a further deepening supply shortage compared to customer orders. This suggests the possibility of additional increases in memory semiconductor prices.

Increased memory semiconductor purchases are emerging as a key variable for next year's market. Goldman Sachs has raised its forecast for hyperscaler companies' CapEx investments next year by about 10-20% higher than before, and a significant portion of these funds is expected to be concentrated on memory semiconductor purchases.

The forecast is expected to be significantly raised by 10-20%, with a substantial portion of this increase focusing on memory semiconductor purchases.

Currently, the cyclical volatility of memory companies has significantly reduced compared to before. Even with binding contracts, the possibility remains that companies might accept penalties and dispose of inventory if supply exceeds demand.

CEO Lee Ju-yeon believes that LTA contracts do not completely eliminate the cycle, but assesses that the cyclical volatility of memory companies has significantly reduced compared to before.

Companies will begin planning their memory requirements for next year starting in October.

Based on these plans, CapEx investments and demand for equipment and materials will be conveyed to lower-tier SooBujang companies.

Orders for SooBujang companies are expected to intensify in line with the timing of equipment delivery to SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics' factories next year.

CEO Lee Ju-yeon stated that among semiconductor SooBujang companies, equipment stocks are a priority.

Consumable companies, such as sockets, which are continuously used up during the testing process, are also viewed positively.

With Samsung Electronics expanding DDR5 outsourcing, expectations for companies like Hana Micron and SFA Semiconductor to recover to their previous highs remain valid. Compared to front-end equipment stocks, their share price increase has been smaller, and they have fallen by about half from their peak, offering high valuation appeal.

As Samsung Electronics announced an expansion of general DRAM and DDR5 outsourcing, OSAT (Outsourced Semiconductor Assembly and Test) companies are expected to benefit, with companies like Hana Micron and SFA Semiconductor having valid expectations for recovery to their previous highs.

According to SemiAnalysis, half of U.S. data centers are expected to adopt the BTM method after 2028, with fuel cells (SOFC) and ship engines being representative BTM sectors with anticipated performance and momentum.

It is necessary to pay attention to companies that simultaneously have fuel cell order announcements and power facility momentum.

LS Electric and Sanil Electric, among others, have announced Blue Energy orders, and their order backlogs are also at an all-time high. These power-related companies are showing sideways stock price movements after their peaks, putting them in a low-burden stock price position.