Lee Jae-myung's 'Counter-Presidential' Stance and Yoo Si-min's Change of Heart

Analysis suggests that through his press conference, leader Lee Jae-myung made an effective 'counter-presidential' declaration, continuing oppression against the right and attempting to consolidate the left.

This is interpreted as being temporarily successful in creating a psychological barrier to prevent a decline in approval ratings. It is anticipated that incitement to civil strife through division between strong and weak, and between regions, will intensify in the future.

Signs of compromise are detected in the change of attitude from factions that previously attacked Lee Jae-myung, and a fierce battle for leadership within the left-wing camp is anticipated in the lead-up to the 2028 general election.

Since his election, during recent press conferences, Lee Jae-myung has used phrases like 'I'm thinking' and 'I haven't decided.'

This behavior is interpreted as an attempt to evade responsibility and mitigate criticism for arbitrary exercise of power by displaying decision-making difficulties. It reveals a tendency to wield arbitrary power when strong, but to flee and procrastinate in times of crisis.

The actual polling period was from the 14th to the 18th, which did not fully reflect the situation before and after the press conference. The fact that Lee Jae-myung remained quiet without any controversial actions before the press conference was a factor in defending his approval rating decline.

The prevailing view is that this was a naturally occurring result, influenced by the Democratic Party's psychological threshold of 34% among its supporters.

Lee Jae-myung shifted his stance to maintain the special prosecutor investigation but exclude the clause on nullifying indictments.

Leader Cho Kuk proposed that nullifying indictments through a special prosecutor was inappropriate and suggested separate parliamentary resolutions, which Lee Jae-myung accepted to secure justification, thus modifying his strategy to a two-phase approach: special prosecutor first, then nullification of indictments.

This indicates that the left's critical arrows have shifted from Lee Jae-myung personally to his surrounding factions or YouTubers. The possibility of an underground compromise between Lee Jae-myung's supporters and Moon Jae-in's supporters (Moonjo Tullae) is raised.

Lawmaker Kim Min-seok is evaluated as a figure who has expressed his ambition for power by competing with Chung Cheong-rae, Cho Kuk, and others. The left-wing camp appears to be using Kim Min-seok as a scapegoat, as a pretext for internal compromise, to defend Lee Jae-myung's declining approval rating.

Concurrently, efforts to weaken or remove the influence of Kim Min-seok, who checks Cho Kuk, are anticipated.

Lawmaker Kang Hoon-sik is highly likely to be re-appointed if Lee Jae-myung's approval rating rebounds and is currently seen as merely a figurehead. Lee Jae-myung appears to view Kang Hoon-sik solely as a means to shift the approval rating situation.

Indications of an implicit compromise between Lee Jae-myung and Yoo Si-min are detected, and intentions to evade trial are expected to persist through calls for special prosecutor investigations into indictment nullification and fabricated charges.

This is interpreted as a strategy to separate Lee Jae-myung from his surrounding factions. Movements by Moon Jae-in-supporting YouTube factions to check lawmaker Kim Min-seok are also observed.

A fundamental critique of livelihood issues such as real estate policy is also lacking.

Criticism is raised that there are no devices to control or check Lee Jae-myung's spontaneous and arbitrary governing style.

The structure of aides who only read the president's mood is also pointed out as a problem.

Since a 35% approval rating makes a 51% vote impossible, conflicts between Lee Jae-myung and opposing factions are expected to reignite as the 2028 general election approaches.

The strategy of pressing for a special prosecutor investigation to evade trials is expected to continue, and Lee Jae-myung's approval rating is ultimately predicted to stagnate or decline.

A fierce battle for power within the Democratic Party is expected.