KOSPI 7,000 Point Battle, Foreign Investor Supply and Demand Variables

Hong Seon-ae stated, "Since it's Quadruple Witching Day for futures and options, and tomorrow is the KLX ETF rebalancing day, there might be some volatility at the end of trading today." Investors adjusted their positions in preparation for this.

This is the background for strategies that seek bottom-buying opportunities based on economic fundamentals. Kim Jang-yeol said, "When we look at the U.S. economy, is the absolute level of interest rates that we are currently experiencing really that burdensome compared to the past? It might not be. This kind of talk is starting to circulate."

Active movements are observed centered on individual stocks with solid fundamentals, indicating a shift in investor interest. Kim Jang-yeol said, "If large-cap stocks neither fall nor rise and move sideways for several days or weeks, then efforts to find opportunities elsewhere, not just in telecom equipment but also in Soobujang, including stocks that haven't been talked about much, are showing movement."

As the trading day drew to a close, foreign and institutional investors gradually reduced their selling volume. In contrast, individual investors, who showed buying early in the day, began taking profits as stock prices rebounded. Lee Kwon-hee explained, "As the market approached closing, institutional and foreign investors reduced their selling volume, while individuals, who bought in the morning, started selling as prices went up."

According to technical analysis, the convergence of moving averages strongly indicates that the market's upward or downward direction is likely to emerge clearly soon. Lee Kwon-hee emphasized, "When these moving averages converge in a certain range, a direction, either up or down, will emerge. If they converge, then..." highlighting the need to pay attention to future market movements. The movement after convergence is expected to be an important signal for investors.

As expectations for rising High Bandwidth Memory (HBM) prices for Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are raised, the discrepancy with macroeconomic conditions affects investors' threshold setting. Some expect strong HBM demand to override all negative factors, but there are counterarguments that it will be difficult to reflect this in corporate earnings in the short term. It is important for investors to comprehensively consider the positive outlook for HBM and the current macro situation to establish their own investment criteria. Kim Jang-yeol said, "For Samsung Electronics and Hynix, HBM prices seem to be going up. 50%, 100%. That will cover everything. Or, it's not realistic that it will be reflected in earnings until this year, of course."

In the market, optimistic outlooks such as expectations for an end to the war are spreading, while skepticism that macroeconomic variables like interest rate hikes will overwhelm everything is fiercely clashing. This is leading to a debate among investors over whether to sell leading stocks like semiconductors. Some view short-term corrections as buying opportunities, while others, judging that further gains are difficult due to interest rates, are taking profits. Kim Jang-yeol conveyed the market's conflicting views, saying, "People who are easily swayed or want to believe it might think, 'If I hold on for 1 or 2 months, it will be fine. Then I should buy when it goes down during those 1 or 2 months.' On the other hand, if someone thinks, 'What kind of naive talk is that? If this happens, everything will be covered by interest rates,' then when semiconductor stocks go up because of something, they might take profit if they think semiconductor stocks won't go higher. So, there's bound to be a debate."

This is believed to be profit-taking on previously accumulated net long positions. Approximately 6,800 contracts of the sold volume were directly sold, and over 20,000 contracts were analyzed to have been rolled over to December futures. Lee Kwon-hee explained, "Foreign investors sold about 1.8 trillion won. In short, they took profits. This is because there were many net long positions, so you can see it as profit-taking. In terms of volume, they sold about 6,800 contracts. Since there were almost 20,000 contracts, it's highly likely that over 20,000 contracts were rolled over." Simultaneously, foreign spot positions shifted to net buying, and stock futures buying continued.

The company plans to build a dedicated factory for SMR main equipment and secure new growth engines by linking it with its existing 3GW power generation HiMSEN engine business. Lee Kwon-hee said, "HD Hyundai Heavy Industries is investing in SMRs. So, HD Hyundai is investing in the 3GW power-related HiMSEN engine business, and also in manufacturing the main equipment for SMRs. When Bill Gates of TerraPower visited before, he met with HD Hyundai Group. I wondered why, and it seems that the nuclear power cooperation project they talked about back then was this." This is interpreted as a concretization of the cooperation project with Bill Gates' TerraPower.

Kim Jang-yeol reported, "Considering the fall in the exchange rate, they are receiving up to 6.8x. It was almost tied with Micron yesterday." This suggests that exchange rate fluctuations play an important role in the valuation process of semiconductor companies, and a reassessment of domestic companies' valuations is needed. As the valuation gap between the two companies narrows, investors' perspectives are also changing.

Such analysis from a global investment bank is taken as a strong signal for future performance improvement of semiconductor companies.

Criticism was raised that setting the Terminal Growth Rate at 4.5% in the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is excessive. Kim Jang-yeol pointed out, "So, the difference between 4.5% and 3.something % causes the target price to fluctuate by about 30-40%. Yes. But it was 4.5%. That really bothers me quite a bit." A 1 percentage point difference in the perpetual growth rate was found to cause the target price to fluctuate by 30-40%, leading to criticism that the current assumption of a 4.5% growth rate for foundry companies deviates from market reality. If the growth rate is arbitrarily set too high, company value can be overestimated, requiring a cautious approach.

Attention must be paid to the impact of changes in the US market on foreign investor supply and demand after the expiration date. The market is closely watching whether foreign selling is short-term profit-taking or a long-term position adjustment.

This served as an opportunity to positively change investors' views on Meta's valuation attractiveness and new business initiatives.

Hong Seon-ae said, "The cheapest one starts at $1999. But the design is also a bit polarizing. Some find it pretty." Despite this controversy, the impact on related companies such as component suppliers or Samsung Display is analyzed to be limited.

Hong Seon-ae reported, "Saempyo Foods hit the daily limit-up, and when I looked into why, it said they decided to cancel 30% of their treasury shares." This decision, aimed at enhancing shareholder value, acted as a strong positive catalyst in the market, drawing a favorable response from investors.