Key points of the video

Team Leader Min Jae-gi said his own market forecasts had not worked out well. So he has set several criteria and checks whether the market meets them.

One of the criteria he cited is the spread in the bond market. He explained that over 20 years he has seen the bond market turn before the stock market does.

The high-yield spread is the gap between the yield on bonds issued by sub-investment-grade companies and the yield on safe government bonds. Team Leader Min Jae-gi noted that this gap is at a level above 3%.

To move higher, however, momentum is needed. He pointed to the point when the HBM price increase starts to show up in earnings as a short-term expectation driver.

Concerns were raised that pushing ahead without communicating with the government could trigger strong shareholder backlash. The recent case of Myungshin Industrial, where the duplicate-listing ban guideline was applied, was also mentioned.

A scenario was also raised in which large capital, after a US listing, shows interest in the high valuation and sells. However, the panelists drew a line, saying this is at the level of a novel for now.

An opinion was also voiced that proceeding without shareholder returns could weigh negatively on SK Hynix's multiple valuation.

Team Leader Min Jae-gi said the risk-reward near the 5,500 level is not bad, but described it as a stretch that is hard to endure because moves keep whipsawing.

The analysis pulled past cases of 1-month, 3-month, 6-month, and 1-year returns after 6 to 7 consecutive down trading days, and found that cases where investors held on were far more common. The analysis excludes systemic crises such as 2008.