US-China Summit, The Real Reason for Japan's Shift

The upcoming US-China summit is expected to be a critical juncture that will determine whether the US's policy of containing China solidifies into a practical trend. While partially coercive restrictive policies are currently in place, this summit will likely decide if these will settle into a long-term policy trend.

Key agendas such as trade, tariffs, and AI control are slated for discussion, and whether the US's stance of containing China firmly establishes itself as a policy trend will be determined at this summit.

As the war in Iran drags on, international uncertainty is growing, and in this process, China's strategic hand has relatively strengthened. This is because China's cooperation is essential for the US to ensure the effectiveness of its economic sanctions against Iran.

With the war with Iran prolonged and a ceasefire uncertain, China has emerged as an important mediator and collaborator. It is analyzed that the US's expansion of the front has ironically only increased China's strategic influence.

The US is pursuing a strategy of expanding its front in the conflict with Iran, but this has resulted in giving China greater leverage in international affairs.

By scheduling a summit in September ahead of the November midterm elections, the US administration appears to intend to promote its achievements in containing China and create a favorable political climate. This is interpreted as a political move to build a positive image for the midterm elections.

However, given the current power dynamics between the US and China, there are observations that it will not be easy for the US to achieve the desired outcomes through the summit.

Ironically, China's assertive drive has been a decisive factor in Japan's reawakening and strengthening of its military capabilities, after a period of weakened national power and self-defense. China's aggressive actions, from the South China Sea to the Taiwan issue, have provoked Japan.

In response to China's actions, Japan is enhancing its intelligence capabilities and actualizing military countermeasures, which has led to an awakening of Japan's previously weakened strength.

China's abnormal rise is clearly demonstrated by its hegemonic actions surrounding the South China Sea. It attempts to expand its influence irrationally, claiming areas up to 1,000 km from its coast as its own South China Sea.

These coercive actions by China are militarizing even the Taiwan Strait, considered Japan's lifeline, threatening neighboring countries.

Japan is regarded as the country that has most quickly adapted to changes in international political power and currents. It is deftly leveraging the US-centric power reconfiguration to strengthen its position as an ally.

Japan's enhancement of intelligence and introduction of weapons are not isolated measures but strategic moves that read the larger trends of international politics and respond preemptively.

The current world order is clearly divided into maritime powers centered around the United States and a bloc centered around China, Russia, and North Korea. Amidst this geopolitical division, South Korea faces a complex dilemma.

South Korea has deep economic ties and interests with China, leading to deep contemplation about which path to choose in this bifurcated international order.

China has extensively revised its National Defense Mobilization Law for the first time in 16 years, allowing for the conversion of civilian industrial and technical personnel into military resources in times of emergency. This is interpreted as an intention to establish a system that can utilize the nation's overall capabilities for military purposes in an emergency.

However, there is also a perspective that interpretations linking this revision directly to preparations for an invasion of Taiwan may be somewhat excessive speculation.

Since the reform and opening up, a chronic problem of severe corruption has plagued the People's Liberation Army (PLA) under the command of the Chinese Communist Party. This corruption was largely fueled by the former administrative intervention structure centered on regional military commands, akin to modern-day Jiedushi (military governors).

This military-political organizational structure became a major cause of diminished combat efficiency and acted as a significant obstacle to military modernization and enhancement of practical combat capabilities.

Since taking power, President Xi Jinping has reformed the military by reorganizing the existing military regions into five major theater commands (east, west, south, north, and central). This reflects Xi's reformist will to transition to a system that can quickly assemble and combine army, navy, and air forces for war in an emergency.

The aim of this reorganization is to strengthen joint staff functions and enhance warfighting capabilities. Furthermore, by revising the National Defense Mobilization Law to complement a legal system that lagged behind structural changes, the goal was to increase the efficiency of the military system.

Despite President Xi Jinping's reorganization of theater commands, corruption within the Chinese military remains rampant. Bribery, such as filling rocket liquid fuel with water, continues to occur, and President Xi Jinping is continually cracking down and purging those involved.

Such corruption not only hinders the effective deployment of the military during natural disasters but also raises fundamental questions about the actual combat capabilities of the Chinese People's Liberation Army.

President Xi Jinping is continuing drastic measures to consolidate power, including the purge of Ma Xingrui, who was considered an associate. This is reportedly linked to illicit gains and corruption allegations related to the Evergrande Group.

While President Xi Jinping himself does not covet money or women, he has a clear obsession with power, and he consistently pushes for purges on the grounds of moral norms.