The hosts joked about Editor Park, who has often appeared on the show, to loosen up the mood. They then discussed where to start on today's market movement and prepared for the full analysis.
In August, Bitcoin and gold moved in the same direction, but they decoupled from September onward. Bitcoin then showed a pattern of moving in sync with major stock indexes such as the Nasdaq.
As the dollar index and Treasury yields fell, gold rose first, and Bitcoin followed the stock market rather than gold. When the KOSPI fell sharply the previous day, the direction of Bitcoin's price also followed the KOSPI.
After the PPI came in well above expectations, Bitcoin fell to $79,800. Attention in the market focused on whether a break below $80,000 would be confirmed.
Behind the Nasdaq's sharp decline was a rumor spreading that CoreWeave, a neocloud company, had a problem. When Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang remarked that CoreWeave was strong enough not to need separate support, CoreWeave's shares fell nearly 10% intraday before turning higher.
As CoreWeave's shares rose, Bitcoin also benefited as a spillover, rising about 5% today. However, the hosts expressed concern about whether this rebound would be temporary or sustained, given that inflationary pressure continues.
Oil prices keep rising, and this was cited as a potential risk factor. If inflationary pressure persists, Treasury yields will not fall in a healthy way, and this is becoming evident to the market.
Since Bitcoin has recently been following U.S. stocks, the diagnosis was that oil and inflation must be resolved in the medium to long term. WTI briefly topped $98 yesterday before trading around the $96 level.
Until now, long-term Treasury yields had not fallen well, but as the AI sector, including CoreWeave, wobbled, a new trend emerged in which yields declined.
The existing scale of Treasury issuance has its limits, so the option of issuing Treasuries backed by new assets is also being discussed. When Dalio made his remarks in August, Bitcoin surged from the $60,000 range to the $80,000 range, highlighting its character as an alternative asset.
Fidelity stressed the debasement trade aspect, saying the correlation between Bitcoin and U.S. real interest rates this year is at its highest level ever.
The host pointed out that Larry Fink's remarks always carry a hidden intent. The argument that issuing Treasuries is difficult and that issuance backed by alternative assets is needed is linked to BlackRock's expansion of new asset services.
Some analysts also note that Larry Fink once said all assets will be tokenized, suggesting he is trying to sell digital asset business.
From August, when the dollar index fell and the dollar weakened, Bitcoin and gold rose sharply. In August, Bitcoin led the move, surging from $60,000 to $80,000.
Honestly, I don't really like the recent trend, to be frank.
The guest judged that following the debasement trade fits Bitcoin's independent position better than becoming a double of the Nasdaq.
MSCI set the date: it will announce the affected stocks on November 11 and implement the new criteria after market close on November 30. The prevailing reaction is that this time the review will actually take place without a grace period.
The core of the new criteria is that a substantial portion of a company's assets must be operating assets. However, the ratio was not specified.
When Strategy was added to MSCI, passive funds automatically bought it into their baskets, so if it is removed, those same funds will have to sell the shares back. For this reason, the assessment is that this is likely to be a short-term negative for the stock price.
JP Morgan estimated that exclusion from MSCI could trigger stock sales of roughly $2.8 billion. There is also analysis that including MSCI-linked indexes, outflows could reach as much as $8.8 billion.
It was also pointed out that while Strategy's stock rising when Bitcoin's price rises holds, a falling stock price does not mean Bitcoin's price falls.
It was mentioned that Michael Saylor is a figure who says that when the stock price falls, the Bitcoin-holdings-per-share metric improves. The hosts noted that this view could lead to divergent interpretations of Strategy's stock.
Answers come from the transcript, with the exact spot cited.
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