The Real Reason Iran Suddenly Backed Down

Analysis suggests that if the Strait of Hormuz were blockaded, overall logistics and industrial costs would rise, leading to a fatal impact on the domestic economy.

It is pointed out that a clearer response to security threats was lacking for the protection of national safety and property.

This incident is cited as an example supporting the argument that there is sufficient justification for deployment to protect the safety and property of citizens.

There is a growing recognition that the relationship between South Korea and the United States is incomparably more important than that between South Korea and Iran. As President Trump's pressure for South Korean deployment continues, managing the South Korea-US relationship has become even more crucial.

However, regret is expressed that the golden hour for deciding on deployment was missed due to the absence of a principled response in the early stages of the incident.

An example of this is Saudi Arabia and the UAE discussing expanding crude oil stockpiles with South Korea.

South Korea is evaluated as having great potential to emerge as a second production base and strategic hub in the Middle East, utilizing its refinery facilities and storage infrastructure.

In response, the South Korean government dispatched a joint fact-finding mission comprising the Ministry of National Defense, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Joint Chiefs of Staff to the UAE to assess the situation.

A deployment size of 100-150 personnel is being considered, with discussions focusing on a non-combat-oriented composition, such as maritime firearms and explosive ordnance disposal teams.

Facing a security dilemma, there are both calls for participation in the US-led International Maritime Security Construct (IMS) and opposing views.

There is a threat that Iran could consider South Korea a belligerent if deployed, and domestically, public opposition to deployment (55% in a Gallup poll) is surging.

A deployment strategy focused solely on non-combat forces may not meet US expectations, and additional pressure is anticipated given the hawkish stance of the Trump administration.

This is because the quality of life for Iranian citizens has worsened due to economic pressure.

Former President Rouhani argued that to restore war damage and give hope to youth and investors, the war should end honorably, indicating intensifying power struggles between moderates and hardliners. This shows that the stability of the Iranian regime is threatened by strengthened economic sanctions.

This measure further exacerbates Iran's economic isolation.

While Iran is responding in the short term through emergency financial loans, its main industries, such as oil and steel, have been hit, threatening to sever economic alliances.

If South Korea decides to deploy, the South Korea-Iran relationship is highly likely to enter a considerable cooling-off period. Furthermore, in the 2003 Iraq deployment, other allied nations participated in the war, but now no US ally wants to intervene in this war, which is a significant burden for South Korea.

It is pointed out that a unilateral deployment in such an internationally isolated situation lacks justification without the deployment of US Forces Korea. Accordingly, various deployment options, such as patrol aircraft or logistical support, are being considered.

This inevitably increases the real risk to South Korean vessels and expatriates.

Furthermore, analysis suggests that the government's deployment decision also has a high likelihood of exacerbating the domestic political situation.

Iran has stated that it will consider all actions hostile the moment it is incorporated into a US-led operation. Therefore, a warning was issued not to underestimate the actual possibility of retaliation.

There have been past incidents of South Korean vessels being attacked, and the possibility of South Korean vessels being listed on Iran's target list if deployed cannot be ruled out.

Rumors are circulating that the public activities of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei have ceased, leading to limitations in his governing functions. In reality, security and war foreign policy are believed to be led by a collective leadership system composed of Revolutionary Guard generals.

This raises concerns that the increasing influence of hardliners could strengthen Iran's aggressive stance.

The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial gateway for the South Korean economy, and South Korea has a very high dependence on the Middle East for crude oil imports. Concerns are rising that if the Strait of Hormuz is blockaded or vessel attacks become prolonged, energy prices and logistics costs will skyrocket.

This situation could lead to inflation across society and directly impact the South Korean economy.

However, many assessments suggest that the current ROK-US relationship is not good.

President Trump's remarks calling for greater contributions from allies highlight the increased importance of managing the ROK-US relationship.

The US conveyed to South Korea its wish for forces to be deployed to the Strait of Hormuz by November at the latest. In response, a joint fact-finding mission comprising the Ministry of National Defense, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, and Joint Chiefs of Staff has been dispatched to the UAE to assess the situation.

As US pressure for deployment intensifies, the South Korean government is deliberating to finalize the deployment scale and mission.

South Korea is discussing a non-combat force of 100-150 personnel, pursuing a 'low-key' approach using minimal forces. This cautious approach aims to avoid direct involvement in the core of the conflict by deploying primarily naval logistical support vessels, maritime patrol, and explosive ordnance disposal teams.

This is judged to be a strategy to deploy, but not to get too deeply involved in the core of the war.

This is predicted based on past cases, such as when the Bush administration expressed dissatisfaction when the Roh Moo-hyun administration dispatched non-combat troops to Iraq and Afghanistan.

Considering the hawkish stance of the Trump administration, analysis suggests that if South Korea deploys mainly non-combat troops, there could be additional pressure for combat troop deployment.