After Nvidia's earnings release, market volatility is rising, and proactive investment and shareholder return policies have emerged as the key issues.
Stock price volatility appeared in the market right after this guidance release. Investors focused on the possibility of a margin decline and voiced doubts about Nvidia's future profitability.
Nvidia is establishing its position in the global market as its quarterly revenue enters the 100-billion-dollar era. Meanwhile, Samsung Electronics already recorded revenue of 170 trillion won (over 100 billion dollars) last quarter, surpassing Nvidia in revenue scale. However, some assess that Nvidia has the edge in profitability relative to its revenue scale.
Nvidia has been increasing contract and deposit payments to secure production lines at TSMC. Now it is also expanding the scale of deposit payments to secure high-bandwidth memory (HBM) supply. The HBM-related deposits are doubling every quarter, and are expected to act as a tailwind for memory companies such as Samsung Electronics, SK hynix, and Micron.
Nvidia's stock gapped up after the earnings release, but market experts are raising caution about the trend after the market opens. This is because after past earnings releases, the stock often gapped up and then declined after the open. Whether it closes in the black after tonight's open is considered important, and some analysts say buying from leveraged ETFs could limit further upside in the market.
That is comparable to South Korea's annual budget. Nvidia's growth is expected to positively affect the growth of domestic semiconductor companies and increase national tax revenue.
It has been confirmed that the deposit amount under semiconductor supply purchase agreements related to Nvidia reaches 280 billion dollars. Samsung Electronics officially announced that it will not include this massive amount in free cash flow, the basis for shareholder return funds. This decision has emerged as a key issue in the controversy over the reduction of shareholder returns. Investors are watching how the accounting treatment of these deposits will affect shareholder value.
By disclosing its next-generation roadmap including Rubin Ultra, it showed its intent to maintain a two-year gap over competitors. Signs of intensifying competition are emerging, such as OpenAI's Jalapeño (ASIC) reaching performance on par with Nvidia's Blackwell chip, but Nvidia intends to keep its market lead through continued new product development.
Michael Burry, known as a investing genius, pointed out that companies are issuing stock options in proportion to the shares they buy back and retire. He argued that because stock-based compensation prevents the actual number of shares issued from falling, the effect of buybacks and retirements is offset. On the other hand, another view interprets stock option issuance as an essential growth driver for attracting and rewarding top talent.
Russia is cracking the U.S. economic sanctions stance by formalizing a gas pipeline connection with Iran. After being excluded from the dollar system, Russia is pursuing joint gas development with Iran and taking an independent course. As the geopolitical crisis in the Strait of Hormuz intensifies, attention is focused on whether Iran's international position will shift around the U.S.-China summit in September.
Russia openly said there yesterday, uh, Bessent, yeah, okay, we'll export gas to Iran.
Some see a difference in views on whether advances in AI in specific fields, such as legal review, should count as AGI, and discussion about the definition of AGI and when it will be realized is actively underway.
SK hynix is likely to move in tandem with Nvidia's stock near the upper Bollinger Band. Investors need to closely watch the short-term chart trends of these two companies and set their strategies.
Market wariness over possible changes in the Federal Reserve's monetary policy is rising. After moving away from the recent rate-cut trend, voices calling for rate hikes are emerging again. If a sustained rate-hike cycle begins, it could have a major impact on the market, so investors are urged to stay cautious.
App Store revenue recorded negative growth for the first time in ten years, the smartphone replacement cycle has lengthened, and the burden of price increases is mounting. In addition, uncertainty over Apple's core revenue sources is increasing due to service fee issues and the spread of external payments.
As mobile game companies increasingly build their own payment systems, Apple's App Store commission revenue is shrinking.
Analysts say Apple's appeal as a growth stock is diminishing and its defensive characteristics are growing stronger. Warnings have also been raised that Apple's stock could trade sideways for some time compared with AI-related stocks such as semiconductors. Investors therefore need to keep this in mind and set strategies that account for Apple's role as a hedge asset when investing in it.
Samsung Electronics' share buyback issue and changes in investor sentiment could also act as important variables. In particular, Samsung's movement is likely to depend on how Nvidia's stock moves tonight.
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