New NYT/Siena Poll Shows Democrats Leading in Five of Seven Critical Senate Races

The CNN host opened by describing a wave of new polls. He said the latest numbers from The New York Times and Siena University showed Democrats leading in five of seven critical Senate races, and that if those results were reflected on Election Day, Democrats would take the Senate with room to spare. In his words, "New numbers from the New York Times and Siena, which, if they are reflected on Election Day, the Democrats would take the Senate with room to spare."

The other two races have no clear leader. The host noted that these are polls, and that the actual outcome would only be known by the end of the following day.

The host singled out Michigan, where Democrat Abdul El-Sayed leads by 11 points, which he described as the biggest lead the polling has shown there. He noted that the poll was taken before Democratic Congresswoman Haley Stevens abruptly flipped her endorsement from outside to Republican Mike Rogers.

The host explained that Democrats need 51 seats to control the U.S. Senate. Using the NYT/Siena numbers, he walked through the states one by one. Michigan, where El-Sayed leads by 11 points, went to Democrats first. Texas, where James Talarico leads by seven points, brought them to 49 seats. Maine, where Troy Jackson leads by six points, took them to 50. Ohio and Kansas, where Democrats lead by five points in each, brought them to 52, giving them what they need to control the Senate.

The host then said Democrats would be at 54 if two more of the remaining toss-up states, Iowa, Alaska, and the others on the list, went their way. He added that Democrats would be ecstatic to get 51, let alone 54.

Mississippi was also mentioned as a state Democrats are watching, though the host called it a moonshot.

CNN's Harry Enten then ran the numbers. He said that with the exception of Maine, all five states where Democrats hold an advantage were carried by Donald Trump in 2024. He pointed to Michigan, where El-Sayed leads by 11, Texas, where Talarico is up seven, Maine, where Troy Jackson is up six over Susan Collins, Ohio, where Sherrod Brown leads by six, and Kansas, where Democrats lead by five. Enten noted that Kansas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1932.

Alaska and Iowa were described as tight races with no clear leader, though Democrats hold a slight nominal advantage in Alaska. Enten said that if the polls hold, the map would move from 47 Democratic seats to 54, a net gain of seven, and that all of these states would turn blue. He summed it up by saying that if these polls hold through Election Day, it would be a dream scenario for Democrats.

The host raised the broader argument that Republicans are underestimated, or undercounted, in polling. Enten said that this idea deserves a look. He suggested that the polls might be underestimating Republicans, and that this has happened before.

Enten pointed to a historical record: in close races in states Trump won in the prior election, the GOP beat the final Senate polling average by 4.1 points on average. He noted that the averages are closer when it comes to polls showing how well Democrats could do.

Enten then showed what a polling error favoring Republicans might look like. Under that scenario, Democrats would fall from 54 seats to 49, because Alaska, Texas, Kansas, and Ohio would all go red. He said people should keep in mind that polls are just tools, and that there are definitely scenarios in which Republicans could hold the Senate.

Enten then asked the reverse question: what if Democrats are underestimated? He pointed to the record of Democrats beating their final Senate poll averages. In midterms during the Trump era, 2018 and 2020, Democrats were slightly more likely to be underestimated by the polls. In 2022, he said, Democrats were underestimated in all of the close Senate races.

He argued that the idea that a polling error would necessarily benefit Republicans does not hold up against history. If Democrats were underestimated, they could reach 55 seats, including South Carolina, which has not elected a Democratic senator since Fritz Hollings in 1998.

Enten concluded that there is a wide range of possible scenarios. He said he would rather be in the Democrats' position than the Republicans', but that the bottom line is either party could win the Senate with relative ease. The host agreed that the voters will have their say soon enough.

The host then brought in Republican strategist Neil Chatterjee and CNN political commentator Karen Finney. He noted that the NYT/Siena poll, which has Michigan leading, was taken before news about Haley Stevens over the weekend. He asked Finney whether it is the job of a campaign to prevent something like this, and how a campaign would normally handle such a situation before the weekend.

Finney said there was additional reporting over the last several hours, and that the story was moving fast. She noted that Stevens had expressed concern, and that normally there is a cooling-off period before candidates come back together and unify. She added that unity requires a willing participant, and that reporting indicates Haley was not willing to unify, for example.

Finney went on to say that the advertising, the mudslinging, the Islamophobia, and the anti-Semitism have opened wounds and tried to divide people. She said she was pleased to see unity on the part of the Democratic Party in Michigan, particularly in the Black community.

Finney said she had heard from many Black leaders on the ground who were not happy that Haley Stevens chose to use a Black church as the backdrop for her endorsement of Mike Rogers. According to Finney, that reaction further emboldened people to want to get out and vote for Abdul.

The host noted that the latest New York Times/Siena poll showed an 11-point lead, albeit before the Haley Stevens news. He added that a CNN poll the previous week also showed the lead growing. Inside these polls, he said, there is enormous disapproval of President Trump and rising negatives for Mike Rogers.

The host asked how much the polls will really matter given the political environment. Chatterjee said it depends on the accuracy of the polling, the map, the money, and the structural advantages Republicans have in some states. He described this as a tough, doom-and-gloom campaign season for Republicans because of the president's approval ratings and some of the polls.

He said the vibe really shifted this week among Republican politicians, pointing to the New York Times breaking the Stevens story in Alaska and what it revealed about the lengths Democrats would go to. He said what interested him most was not that Stevens endorsed Mike Rogers, but the vitriol she faced. In his view, people who put country over party are supposed to be praised, yet Stevens was brutally savaged by critics who said there is too much on the line to put country first.

Chatterjee argued that Republicans who may be dissatisfied with the Trump administration and congressional Republicans could be motivated by that backlash to show up on Tuesday.

Closing in on Election Day, the host asked each guest how effective a campaign tactic it is for President Trump to go to the reflecting pool to focus the country on his construction projects, which, he noted, voters have been telling pollsters they do not like.

Finney said she had to read the point twice to make sure she was reading it correctly. She argued that the event works as a closing message reminding people why they are so angry at this president. She cited a Wall Street Journal poll, which she said found that people want a check on his power and an end to the war in Iran, and said Democrats would deliver that.

Chatterjee said he would rather see Trump there than in Maine or Michigan. He argued the event would energize the Republican base in red states, where Republicans need turnout, and would keep Trump away from blue and purple states, where candidates there would likely want to show some independence from him. He said Iowa and Ohio fall into that category as well.