Micron Earnings to Sway Samsung, Hynix Stock Prices

This selling volume is being absorbed by other corporations, which have bought 31 trillion won over the month, contributing to the KOSPI index maintaining a certain level. However, as the end of Samsung Electronics' and SK Hynix's share buybacks approaches, concerns about future supply and demand imbalances are growing.

The outlook for large-scale data center construction varies depending on interest rate fluctuations and the corporate bond issuance environment. Experts note that if construction is not supported, there is a risk of price drops due to oversupply, so companies' actual operating demand and stock investment sentiment should be viewed separately.

If data center construction is not sufficiently supported, it could lead to an oversupply of semiconductors, driving down prices. Currently, the outlook for data center construction is still fluid due to interest rate fluctuations and the corporate bond issuance environment, and it is necessary to separate the actual demand for corporate operations from stock investment sentiment.

Focusing on HBM production has limited the supply of general DRAM, leading to increased price volatility. As of September 16, some DDR4 and DDR5 spot prices declined, and inquiries for semiconductor quotes also slowed, raising concerns about signs of deteriorating performance in the market.

Recently, the focus on HBM production has limited general DRAM production, increasing price volatility. As of September 16, some DDR4 and DDR5 spot prices showed a downward trend, but opinions are divided on whether this is a precursor to worsening performance or a temporary phenomenon.

Furthermore, signs of slowing semiconductor quote inquiries are increasing market concerns.

The expansion of production capacity by Chinese memory manufacturers indicates that the technology and production gap with leading companies is narrowing faster than expected.

There are precedents where neglecting Chinese technology in the display, electronics, and EV sectors led to market surrender, so vigilance regarding the Chinese semiconductor industry is necessary.

If CXMT starts supplying to large companies like Apple, Dell, and HP, its competitiveness could rapidly increase due to the quality certification effect. While currently underestimated in the market, it is highly likely to pose a substantial threat in the future.

Wall Street forecasts Micron's revenue at $50.8 billion and adjusted EPS at $31.5, projecting tenfold growth year-over-year.

However, a Citi analyst maintains a conservative view, predicting that prices will peak in Q2 2027 and growth will slow from 2028.

The gap between Micron's (118% growth in 2027) and SK Hynix's (30% growth in 2027) forecasts suggests a conservative market view towards SK Hynix.

Future guidance is more critical than actual earnings figures at this juncture. Sumit Sadana, Micron's Chief Business Officer, projected that the semiconductor market in 2027 would see demand growth outpace supply, entering a tighter supply-demand phase than in 2026.

This indicates that even if Micron's earnings figures are positive, stock prices could fall if management uses uncertain words during the earnings call. Amid continued foreign selling of Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix shares, confident guidance from Micron could be a crucial turning point for a shift to foreign buying.

This supply shortage situation implies potential price increases, and positive forecasts are being confirmed through various indicators, including wafer input data.

As foreign selling continues and the end of Samsung Electronics' and SK Hynix's share buybacks approaches, it is necessary to pay attention to these changes in supply and demand.

Concerns about a supply and demand gap after the end of share buybacks are growing. With foreign selling continuing, the market's attention is focused on whether Micron's earnings announcement will be a turning point that improves investor sentiment.

If Micron presents positive earnings and guidance, it could be a catalyst for a shift to foreign buying, but concerns are raised that if foreign buying does not materialize and share buybacks end, a supply and demand gap could occur in the domestic stock market.