Lee Jae-myung's Approval Rating Falls to 33%, Exodus of Women in Their 20s Deepens

Lee Jae-myung, leader of the Democratic Party of Korea, recorded an approval rating of 33.8%, showing a decline. This is according to a Realmeter survey, which is even lower than the figure below 35% recorded in last week's PenNMicro survey.

The host emphasized the seriousness of the decline, stating, "As you can see, his approval rating across the country fell to 33.8%, breaking the 35% mark. It has collapsed."

The most significant factor influencing the drop in Lee Jae-myung's approval rating was identified as the exodus of female voters in their 20s. Support among those in their 20s plummeted to 18.6%, with a particular confirmation that women in their 20s withdrew their support for the Democratic Party and Lee Jae-myung.

The host explained, "The reason why Lee Jae-myung's support among those in their 20s fell so much is that the exodus of women in their 20s was enormous. Women in their 20s have finally all started to leave. They have declared 'I hate the Democratic Party, I hate Lee Jae-myung' and are now starting to leave."

This indicates that the dissatisfaction of young people, especially female voters, with the Democratic Party and Lee Jae-myung has reached its peak.

Gyeonggi Governor Choo Mi-ae caused a stir by directly referring to 'the Jeon Jeong-geun of the sedition forces' at a memorial event for democracy movement victims in Gyeonggi Province. This remark became an impetus for deepening conflict between pro-Lee and anti-Lee factions within the Democratic Party.

The host reported, "Gyeonggi Governor Choo Mi-ae, at an event commemorating victims of the democracy movement in Gyeonggi Province, directly attacked 'the Jeon Jeong-geun of the sedition forces.' This also seemed to show some cracks or divisions within the Democratic Party's support base."

Governor Choo Mi-ae recently earned the nickname 'Choo-jo Teol-lae' (Choo who shakes off everything), signaling her potential independent presidential bid by rallying hardline supporters. Lee Min-chan commented, "So much so that these days they don't say Moon-jo Teol-lae (Moon who shakes off everything) anymore; they say Choo-jo Teol-lae. So, Choo Mi-ae took the lead, right? 'I won't miss this opportunity.' Isn't it that she quickly stepped forward?"

This is analyzed as a strategy to actively jump into the next presidential race, taking advantage of Lee Jae-myung's legal risks and the party's crisis.

These moves are further complicating the power structure within the Democratic Party and serving as a factor in deepening the conflict between pro-Lee and anti-Lee factions.

Governor Choo Mi-ae's strong remarks and independent actions are interpreted as attempts to expand her intra-party support base and highlight her presence.

Concerns have been raised that Lee Jae-myung's engrossment in central politics could negatively impact administrative tasks in local governments. Lee Min-chan stated, "Governor Choo Mi-ae may not feel it now, but there will be significant protests in each local government."

This points out that focusing on presidential aspirations could lead to budget cuts for local districts and governments, causing a ripple effect of negative consequences for Democratic Party officials.

According to a Realmeter survey, the Democratic Party's approval rating among those in their 20s recorded 15%, lower than Lee Jae-myung's individual approval rating. Lee Min-chan emphasized, "The Democratic Party's approval rating for late teens and 20s is 15%. So, the Democratic Party's approval rating among those in their 20s is lower than Lee Jae-myung's approval rating."

This is analyzed as a phenomenon resulting from the accumulated fatigue among young people regarding internal party conflicts and administrative vacuums.

It is an important indicator showing the overall decline in the Democratic Party's approval rating and the deepening exodus of voters in their 20s.

Rep. Yong Hye-in's method of resignation was criticized as a political misjudgment. On the day Yong Hye-in stepped down, the Democratic Party held a high-level party-government-presidential office meeting, and Chairman Kim Min-seok mentioned, "We will strengthen solidarity with the minor parties."

Lee Min-chan said, "On the day Yong Hye-in stepped down, the Democratic Party held a high-level party-government-presidential office meeting, didn't they? And Chairman Kim Min-seok said there that 'we will strengthen solidarity with the minor parties.'" He interpreted this as implying that Yong Hye-in's resignation was at the Democratic Party's instruction.

An analysis emerged that Chairman Kim Min-seok's mention of the Roh Moo-hyun impeachment was intended to check former Minister Choo Mi-ae. Lee Min-chan said, "That was to check Choo Mi-ae. Just for Choo Mi-ae to hear. 'Because of you, we could be impeached like Roh Moo-hyun.'"

This is interpreted as a remark reminding Choo Mi-ae of her past involvement in the impeachment of President Roh Moo-hyun, showcasing the power struggle within the opposition and internal divisions due to declining approval ratings.

Chairman Kim Min-seok's statement is seen as having a political calculation to pressure Governor Choo Mi-ae amidst the intra-party power struggle.

Our Constitution stipulates a party dissolution system as a defense mechanism to prevent totalitarian parties that undermine liberal democracy. The host explained, "What is the party dissolution system? If our Constitution has a system to protect against totalitarianism, there are two representative systems among them: the unconstitutional law review system and the party dissolution system."

It was emphasized that it is legally natural for lower courts to follow a ruling overturned by the Supreme Court, as a matter of binding force, and that the purpose of the party dissolution system is to uphold the Constitution.

The Democratic Party's claim for the dissolution of the People Power Party is interpreted as a strategic means to cover up numerous suspicions related to Chairman Lee Jae-myung. The host stated, "I wonder if it's a strong signal from the Democratic Party's supporters or the Democratic Party's pursuit of power, saying 'I will dissolve the People Power Party, a party of sedition, so please protect me.'"

This is seen as a 'chicken game' style response that incites public opinion to protect themselves, and it is pointed out that the past 86-generation activist style of incitement is being repeated.

The Democratic Party's claims are evaluated as an attempt to overcome their political crisis.

It was argued that public officials, such as the Minister of Justice, should be appointed as experts at the forefront of the law. The host questioned, "Shouldn't the Minister of Justice try to appoint someone who is truly at the forefront of the law, who lives and breathes the law?"

Concerns were raised that politicians making outrageous claims and confusing public opinion is due to deficiencies in the social system and could undermine the rule of law.

An analysis emerged that, unlike the Moon Jae-in administration, Lee Jae-myung is facing a realistic danger of 'imprisonment' due to legal risks. The host commented, "Even in the Moon Jae-in administration, they had to recreate the government and if they went too far ignoring public opinion, the government could not survive, that sense of reality. Moon Jae-in, at least, wasn't in a situation where he would go to jail, but Lee Jae-myung is now in a situation where he could go to jail."

In this situation, Lee Jae-myung seems to have chosen an extreme confrontation with the public, which is attributed to his lack of political leeway.

It was emphasized that the situation Lee Jae-myung currently faces entails a crisis of a different magnitude than previous administrations.

When the Supreme Court remands a case, there is a 'binding' principle that the lower court must follow the Supreme Court's intent. The host explained, "When the Supreme Court remands a case, the lower court, which hears the case again, simply follows what the Supreme Court instructed."

This is a process of re-examining legal interpretations rather than factual matters, and in practice, it is considered a simple procedure.

It was emphasized that remand trials are important procedures for maintaining legal stability and uniformity.

It was pointed out that a remand trial is a trial where the factual relationship has been legally confirmed, and re-examining the factual relationship does not conform to existing judicial practice. The host commented, "From the parties' perspective, they want to overturn the judgment somehow, but in reality, a remand trial, though called a remand, is simply a concluded trial. It's a concluded trial."

Therefore, it means that even if the parties wish to overturn the judgment, the realistic possibility is low.

Justice nominee Kim Sung-soo's remark, interpreted as mentioning the possibility of reconsidering the sentence for Public Official Election Act violations, is causing controversy. The host said, "But I had this thought. What Justice nominee Kim Sung-soo said was that while guilt is confirmed, a violation of the Public Official Election Act, if the sentence calculation is reconsidered to be less than 1 million won instead of more, then [snorts] the right to be elected is not revoked, right?"

This remark is believed to have considered that a sentence below 1 million won for Public Official Election Act violations does not revoke the right to be elected, raising concerns that the Democratic Party's demands could be reflected.

Controversy continues over the nominee's intent, as his remark could be advantageous to a specific political faction.

Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae is expected to adopt a 'wait-and-see' strategy regarding the rejection of the Supreme Court justice nominee. The host predicted, "I think our Chief Justice will stay put. ... Since Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae is a thorough stickler for principles, he might argue that the rejection itself is unconstitutional and he will simply hold out and wait until the Blue House processes that rejection."

This strategy involves viewing the rejection itself as unconstitutional and waiting for the Blue House to withdraw the rejection, rather than reconstituting the recommendation committee or taking strong action.

Chief Justice Cho Hee-dae's principled response is expected to be another variable in resolving the Supreme Court justice appointment issue.

Concluding the issue related to the appointment of Supreme Court justices, the discussion topic shifted to new current issues related to the Blue House over the weekend.

The differing stances between civil society and the government on the deployment to the Strait of Hormuz are sharply at odds. Over 540 left-leaning civil organizations are pressuring the government by conveying messages opposing the deployment.

However, the government emphasizes that a significant portion of South Korea's crude oil imports passes through the Strait of Hormuz, arguing that the deployment aligns with both national interests and U.S. interests. The host stated, "The deployment to Hormuz isn't about us being a lackey for the U.S., is it? A significant portion of South Korea's crude oil comes through the Strait of Hormuz. Our national interest and the U.S. national interest are aligned."

Lee Jae-myung is expected to deliver a public address this Wednesday. The host mentioned, "Lee Jae-myung is said to be giving a public address this Wednesday, the day after tomorrow. It's expected to cover issues like personnel disaster, the Hormuz Strait deployment we just heard about, and also issues like the dismissal of his indictment or the issue of constitutional amendment for re-election."

The address is expected to cover issues such as the personnel debacle, the Strait of Hormuz deployment, and matters concerning the dismissal of his indictment or a constitutional amendment for re-election, but its effect on his approval rating rebound is anticipated to be minimal.

Suggestions for Lee Jae-myung's political breakthrough strategy to defend his approval rating included personnel reshuffling and emphasizing the national justification for the deployment. Hwang Seong-wook said, "If he withdraws the nomination of Kim Seung-won, talks about the deployment as being for national interest, and doesn't demand the dismissal of indictment but instead acts fairly and squarely, then I think he can gain support from politically engaged layers."

Demands for indictment dismissal could act as a political burden, and there's an analysis that it might be seen as an effort to communicate with less politically engaged segments of the population.

Therefore, it was emphasized that it is important to avoid unnecessary controversy and focus on national interests and the lives of the people.