North Korean Economy Cannot Grow; Only Kim Jong-un Thrives

According to him, North Korea's military strengthening is due to Russian technical support and neutralized sanctions against North Korea. Lee judged that the food and energy aid provided by Russia is merely compensation for troop deployment and unrelated to improving the livelihoods of North Korean citizens.

North Korea does not disclose economic indicators, and it is virtually impossible for them to settle payments in dollars or euros within the international financial system.

In March, at the 9th Workers' Party Congress, Kim Jong-un reiterated 'self-reliance' as a means of local development policy, ordering self-sufficient solutions.

However, despite the construction of new apartments, residents' electricity supply remains at about five hours a day, unchanged from the past. Most residents still cook with coal briquettes, and gas is only used by key officials.

This is an economic system that largely disappeared after the collapse of the Soviet Union and Eastern Bloc in the 1990s.

The second reason is sanctions against North Korea. Under international sanctions, including UN Security Council sanctions, it is difficult to restore the people's economy. Furthermore, economic reforms and opening up, which would threaten the maintenance of Kim Jong-un's dictatorship, are impossible, and nuclear abandonment, a prerequisite for sanction relief, would mean the collapse of the Kim Jong-un regime, making it unfeasible.

Lee, the former diplomat, believes that due to these structural problems, the development of the North Korean economy is practically difficult.

Kim Jong-un's large-scale construction projects are interpreted as a means to flaunt the dictator's achievements and to inject the logic into residents that life is difficult due to international sanctions, thereby securing the regime's legitimacy.

Lee Il-kyu, former diplomat, believes that for North Korea to collapse, the Workers' Party, which supports the Kim family, or the institutions mobilized to maintain the regime, must weaken and become incapacitated.

However, he maintains the view that as long as Kim Jong-un's dynastic ambition does not disappear, the collapse of the North Korean regime will be very difficult.

North Korean residents are isolated from the outside world and indoctrinated with loyalty education to the regime. The system of guilt by association and control over family lives, used as leverage, serves as an important means to prevent defection and deviation.

Former diplomat Lee Il-kyu strongly criticized overseas troop deployment as nothing short of human trafficking, selling people to Russia, and asserted that precious lives, guilty of nothing more than being born on that land, are being sacrificed for Kim Jong-un's regime maintenance.

Former diplomat Lee Il-kyu pointed out that Kim Jong-un's biggest misjudgment was gaining confidence through this deployment that soldiers might die for him.

This has led to a dangerous conviction that soldiers would sacrifice their lives for him if war or military conflict occurred on the Korean Peninsula. Even with outdated equipment, the military rapprochement between North Korea and Russia lays the practical foundation for combined military exercises, posing a serious threat to South Korea's security.

When Kim Ju-ae was first exposed to the media, her title was 'beloved child,' but it was later elevated to 'respected.'

Former diplomat Lee Il-kyu viewed the title 'respected' as an expression closer to an official title used for a leader, signaling an important change in Kim Ju-ae's status.

Since the National Intelligence Service has already identified and announced Kim Ju-ae's succession preparations, this information is highly credible, and former diplomat Lee Il-kyu judged that a long-term, systematic succession process, not a short-term replacement, is necessary.

Kim Jong-un seems to be in no hurry with Kim Ju-ae's succession, learning from his own brief and unstable power transition. He believes a long-term succession process is necessary for a more stable and trouble-free transition.

To this end, Kim Ju-ae is being exposed to residents for a long period to build a foundation, and former diplomat Lee Il-kyu anticipates that Ri Sol-ju will be a key figure supporting Kim Ju-ae's power after Kim Jong-un's death.

Kim Yo-jong will be redefined not as a leader's sibling but as a leader's subordinate.

Former diplomat Lee Il-kyu noted that within North Korea's hereditary succession system, designed to prevent power dispersion, Kim Yo-jong would be well aware that if she refused unconditional obedience, she would either be purged, like in the Jang Song-thaek incident, or have to choose retirement.

Former diplomat Lee Il-kyu viewed changes in inter-Korean relations not as a result of specific personnel changes but as inevitable decisions for North Korea's survival. He asserted that North Korea would never abandon hereditary succession, nuclear weapons, or its regime.

He regarded a low-level reunification as when the living standards of North Korean residents rise at least to the level of the Chinese people, emphasizing that fundamental changes in inter-Korean relations can only be expected once such a transformation occurs.

He expressed conviction that the emergence of a specific successor, such as Kim Ju-ae, would not bring about fundamental changes in inter-Korean relations, and that North Korea would never give up hereditary succession, nuclear weapons, or regime maintenance.

Former diplomat Lee Il-kyu argued that we must change our perspective on reunification. He considered the view that reunification means tearing down walls and South and North Koreans living together in one neighborhood to be outdated and a dangerous fantasy.

He explained that the foundation for reunification can only be laid when North Korean residents' living standards rise at least to the Chinese level, emphasizing the need for a realistic approach where South and North Korean residents can live harmoniously immediately.

The North Korean regime maintains control by allowing residents to live just enough not to starve to death. However, former diplomat Lee Il-kyu believes that if more external information flows into North Korea and residents become materially wealthy, it becomes difficult for the regime to control them.

Therefore, he suggested that provocations from the North Korean regime should be met with strong deterrence, and internal changes in North Korea should be induced through humanitarian aid and economic cooperation for positive choices.