Claims are being made that Democratic Party leader Lee Jae-myung's long-term rule scenario is similar to Russian President Putin's method of constitutional amendment, with figures like writer Yoo Si-min and others detecting these movements and sounding alarm bells.
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It has been claimed that leader Lee Jae-myung will attempt a constitutional amendment in a way we cannot imagine. He will not openly state his intention to seek re-election, and it is predicted that he might follow the model of Russian President Putin.
President Putin maintained power in 2008 when he faced term limits by using the chess term 'castling.' At the time, the Russian constitution limited re-election to one term, so Putin put Dmitry Medvedev forward as president and he himself stepped down as prime minister. During this period, he seized all real power from Medvedev, effectively maintaining control over state affairs.
During his term as prime minister, Putin pushed for a constitutional amendment to extend the presidential term from four to six years. Afterwards, he ran for president again and was elected, and when faced with further term limits, he surprisingly proposed another constitutional amendment. In particular, just before the constitutional amendment bill was passed, lawmaker Valentina Tereshkova inserted a supplementary provision stating that 'the terms of former and current presidents shall be reset to zero,' paving the way for Putin to run for president again. This was a crucial measure that effectively nullified existing presidential term limits, enabling Putin's long-term rule.
It has been pointed out that leader Lee Jae-myung's method of handling bills during the revision of the 'Sister-in-Law Act' was similar to Putin's tactics. It is claimed that during the Legislation and Judiciary Committee meeting, new provisions were left blank, and then actual content was inserted into the empty provisions when the bill went to the plenary session. This method has been criticized as being consistent with the illegal tactics Putin used to push for constitutional amendments.
Putin conducted the constitutional referendum for a week, achieving a 78% approval rate. During this period, all state-run media and pro-Putin figures engaged in widespread propaganda, and he also garnered national support through actions such as the forced annexation of Crimea in the past. This raises questions about the transparency and legitimacy of the referendum process.
Analysis suggests that beyond the 'castling' method, leader Lee Jae-myung could attempt long-term rule through a constitutional amendment for a dual executive system or a parliamentary system. His remark about creating an 'absolute structural majority,' made during a meeting with former President Moon Jae-in, could be linked to these constitutional amendment scenarios. If a dual executive system or parliamentary system is introduced, a party with a structural majority would be able to elect the prime minister. In this case, it is predicted that Lee Jae-myung might rotate the prime minister position with other figures to maintain real power and exert influence over state affairs for an extended period.
Even writer Yoo Si-min has begun to detect a 'rotten smell' in Lee Jae-myung's attempted constitutional amendment, just as pro Kim Nam-hoon predicted, and is sounding alarm bells. As a central figure in the democratic camp, Yoo Si-min's remarks reflect the perception of a serious situation that goes beyond a mere 'fishy smell.' He warned that if left unchecked without any criticism or limitations, everything would start to smell rotten, emphasizing the gravity of the situation.
It has been argued that things need to be purified quickly before they start to smell rotten. This means that someone with a keen sense of smell needs to say, 'Something's odd,' not just that it smells fishy.
It was expressed with regret that while writer Yoo Si-min has been expressing concerns about Lee Jae-myung's constitutional amendment attempt on various broadcasts, many people are not properly understanding its seriousness. He pointed out that despite having already 'smelled' it, his warnings are not being effectively conveyed.
Observations have emerged that reforms to the National Election Commission or a constitutional amendment to relinquish presidential absolute power could be a disguise. This has even led to the provocative imagination that it could lead to strengthening the prime minister's authority or, if Lee Jae-myung's approval rating declines, he could declare his resignation and then take on the prime minister's role for the sake of national continuity. This scenario is analyzed as potentially appearing to relinquish power on the surface, but actually intending to maintain power through other means.
It has been predicted that Lee Jae-myung's extreme attempts will ultimately fail. This is explained by the difference in civic awareness between Russia and South Korea, emphasizing that as long as 2 million PenNLive subscribers are wide awake, such a thing will not happen. However, it was added that Lee Jae-myung, as an individual, will attempt such a thing.
It was mentioned that not only pro Kim Nam-hoon but also writer Yoo Si-min, Hankyoreh's senior political reporter Sung Han-yong, and Kyunghyang Shinmun's editorial writer Lee Dae-geun, among other journalists, are 'smelling' Lee Jae-myung's moves and sensing a crisis. This indicates that the seriousness of the situation is recognized by various experts in common, not just the concern of a specific faction or individual.
Hankyoreh's senior political reporter Sung Han-yong warned that the ongoing controversy related to Lee Jae-myung at the Democratic Party's national convention, dubbed the 'Myungdaejeon' (a showdown involving Kim Min-seok, Jung Cheong-rae, etc.), would destroy the Democratic Party. He predicted that regardless of whether Kim Min-seok or Jung Cheong-rae is elected, the Democratic Party would ultimately break apart or be ruined.
Within the Democratic Party, concerns are also being raised that if Jung Cheong-rae is elected, it would be a disaster for leader Lee Jae-myung and he could fall into a lame-duck period. Furthermore, there is an opinion that Kim Min-seok's election would not be a blessing for leader Lee Jae-myung either. Some Democratic Party lawmakers have expressed pessimistic forecasts, stating that if Jung Cheong-rae becomes leader, the Democratic Party will be ruined, and if Kim Min-seok becomes leader, the party could be ruined even more significantly by the end of the year, or Lee Jae-myung could be forced out.
It has been warned that if Kim Min-seok becomes the party leader, the immediate lame-duck crisis for leader Lee Jae-myung might be averted, but later, the government itself could be endangered by pushing too hard for a special prosecutor for public prosecution withdrawal or a constitutional amendment for re-election.
A pessimistic outlook has emerged that the future of the Democratic Party is bleak, regardless of whether Jung Cheong-rae or Kim Min-seok becomes the party leader. It is analyzed that if Jung Cheong-rae takes the lead, leader Lee Jae-myung will face significant difficulties, and if Kim Min-seok takes the lead, he will, along with Cho Jeong-sik, attempt to push through a special prosecutor for public prosecution withdrawal or a constitutional amendment for re-election. The fact that these concerns from Democratic Party lawmakers are even reaching senior reporters at Hankyoreh shows the considerable sense of crisis within the party.
Answers come from the transcript, with the exact spot cited.
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