Netanyahu's Bloc Loses Majority as Israeli Election Results Leave Deadlock and Coalition Questions

The final results of Israel's election have just been released, showing how the next parliament will be composed. According to the reporting, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's government has lost its majority.

The main opposition, led by Gadi Eisenkot, cannot take over without forming an alliance with Arab parties. Neither major bloc reached the 61 seats needed in the 120-seat Knesset to form a majority government, which sets the country up for weeks of coalition talks or a fresh vote.

Nic Robertson noted that voter turnout was 77.9%, with 5,690,778 valid votes. The count took a couple of days because every tally was counted and rechecked.

Results go through a threshold system, which Robertson mentioned as part of the process that determined the seat numbers laid out in the results.

Robertson reported that Eisenkot, the main challenger, and his bloc still intend to try to form a government. Various members of his party, particularly on the liberal left, have been meeting with Arab leaders and other members of the opposition bloc, and Eisenkot himself has been meeting with some of the bloc's leaders.

Robertson said the position is difficult. Some members on the liberal left of the opposition bloc are ready and willing to work with the Arab parties, but many others in the opposition coalition have ruled this out, having said so before and again after these elections.

One option Eisenkot is weighing is a minority government that relies on confidence and supply support from the Arab parties. Some Arab leaders CNN has spoken with have said they are willing to work with Eisenkot's coalition.

Robertson reported that Netanyahu's Likud party has called for an investigation, arguing that the high Arab turnout and the high number of seats they now hold in the Knesset indicate that foreign interference bumped up their vote. The Central Elections Committee said it will investigate as instructed, and the Shin Bet internal security and intelligence service is also investigating.

Both the Shin Bet and the electoral commission have indicated that the matter is small and very focused, and that it does not affect the democratically cast ballots of Palestinian citizens of Israel, the so-called Arab votes. Eisenkot has said the claim is an intentional plan by the prime minister and his party to delegitimize the election.

Robertson said the dispute is already highly contentious and that it cannot be ruled out that Netanyahu could try to stay in office by pulling other politicians away from the opposition bloc, although some of those politicians have said they will not do that.

Robertson described the situation as complicated, but said the final results have not changed much in the past few hours, signaling a bumpy road ahead. Netanyahu is essentially a caretaker prime minister, and it is unclear whether he still has the powers he would normally have to continue any kind of war with Iran.

Robertson explained that Netanyahu had been pushing for a conflict with Iran, and that President Trump had pushed back. Still, there is a broad expectation in the region that strikes on Iran will occur, and a broad consensus across Israel that Trump's call in early April to end the war, in which Israel and the US were fighting against Iran, came too early, leaving a sense of unfinished business.

When the balloting finished, Eisenkot addressed supporters at his party headquarters in the early hours of Wednesday morning. Among his warnings to the security and intelligence services was not to allow any politicians to use them for political advantage. Robertson said the broad understanding of the statement, with the prime minister implied, was not to go to war to potentially put off forming a new government.

Eisenkot made clear that nothing should stop the electoral process from moving forward to a new government and that nothing untoward should get in the way.

Robertson explained that the prime minister has a role to direct the security services to act for the state if he deems it fit, and that this is his role. The situation becomes more tricky if the opposition appears on the cusp of putting together a real coalition that can go into government, at which point the use of that authority becomes much more contentious.

At the current point, however, Diamond said the prime minister would seem to have the legitimacy to do that. He noted that many people in the country hope the electoral process can be completed first, but if it drags on for months, Netanyahu may still retain broad support among the population, depending on conditions.

Diamond said the situation is very complex, which is why his answers come with conditions. He reported that Israelis by and large do not want to return to a war situation with Iran. People here, he said, do not want to go through running to shelters again for months on end, and they do not want that scenario, even though they feel Iran remains a threat.

Israel's Arab minority voted in record numbers, and political leaders such as Ahmed Tibi are on track to take 19 seats in the 120-seat parliament. Diamond reported Tibi saying that this time they succeeded in heavily convincing voters to take part and vote.

Palestinian citizens of Israel, who account for about 20% of the population, will now have unprecedented influence over the country's future. That influence is enough to block Netanyahu from forming another right-wing government and perhaps even enough to make Eisenkot the next prime minister.

Tibi said the Arab parties believe Eisenkot and the other parties should form their government, and that if necessary they would support it as a minority government. He said that if they want us to help, we will be there to help, and that this is what their community is demanding.

Diamond noted that the question is whether Eisenkot's coalition will accept the help, since a majority of Jewish voters oppose partnering with the Arab parties, and Netanyahu is fanning those flames. Netanyahu was quoted saying that Israel cannot be endangered by a government based on anti-Zionist Arab parties.

About 80% of Israel's Palestinian citizens voted on Tuesday, compared with about 53% in the last election. Many were first-time voters who were galvanized to oust a government they hold responsible for surging crime in Arab communities and for a campaign of ethnic cleansing in the West Bank and Gaza, along with the racism and inequality they say they live with.

Muhammad Abdel Hai, who voted for the second time, brought his elderly aunt to the ballot box, and he said that this time they need every single vote, because if there is another government it will not be the same.

Muhammad Abdel Hai's aunt was born in 1946 and had never voted before. Her vote illustrates the push for every vote in this election.

Since election night, Tibi's phone has not stopped buzzing with hundreds of WhatsApp messages from around the world. He said none were directly from Eisenkot, but he spoke with someone from the opposition faction and told them that the Arab parties are ready to help bring Netanyahu down. Whether the opposition is brave enough to accept that offer, he said, remains to be seen.